The F1 circus is currently on a few weeks’ break before attacking the five last races of the season, starting in Mexico for round 20 on Oct 27, and then concluding in Abu Dhabi on Dec 8. In between are the races in Sao Paolo, Las Vegas and Qatar. As we all take a breather, let’s therefore check in on what’s happened over the last races since my latest update in early June. Because boy has there been some action!

As you may remember, I called the post back in June “Could it be?”, alluding to the fact that it looked like both Ferrari and McLaren had come closer to Red Bull and maybe, just maybe, could bring some excitement to the second half of the season. Well, for once it seems I was right, but little did I think things were about to change so drastically. And I should have added Mercedes to the list of possbiel contenders as well, although their improvement didn’t become apparent until slightly later. As I write this in the first week of October, Red Bull has lost the lead in the constructor standings to McLaren and have Ferrari breathing down their neck. What happened?

There have been 10 races since Monaco at the end of May, and Verstappen, having finished 6th in Monaco, showed that he can still drive by subsequently winning both in Canada and Spain. But in the eight races since Spain, he hasn’t won a single one – yep, you read that right. I might add that Sergio “Checo” Perez hasn’t won any of those eight either, which is perhaps no big surprise, but to be fair, also makes clear that this has more to do with the car then the drivers. Or rather, it has more to do with the other cars in red, orange and silver.

The last eight races have split pretty evenly between McLaren (four victories) Mercedes and (three), with Ferrari and Leclerc picking up the win at home in Monza in front of more than 300.000 jubilant Tifosis, and guaranteeing Leclerc’s legend status in Italy for many years to come (and given the Monegasque Leclerc also won his home GP for the first time this year, he will certainly be happy with the 2024 season!). If you look beyond first place though, it becomes pretty clear that although all three teams have come much closer to Red Bull’s speed, improvements are most notable at McLaren and within the team, things are now much more even between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

This is Piastri’s second F1 season and he quickly showed he deserves his McLaren seat, managing to score two podiums and a sprint victory in his first season 2023. In the first part of this year however, Lando Norris had the lead internally at McLaren. But in the last races since Monaco, Piastri has been on seven podiums and won two races, in Hungary and Azerbaijan. Norris hasn’t done too badly either and is firmly in second place in the drivers’ standings, but to have a realistic chance at he title, he would have needed some of Piastri’s results in the last races.

McLaren is thus in great shape with a car that performs well on most type of tracks. And both Mercedes and Ferrari have found more speed than they had earlier in the season. But with that said, it’s not like Red Bull have broken down and Verstappen has taken a leave. Max is still there, he’s still fast and even though he doesn’t win, he’s still regularly on the podium. Right now however, he’s not really faster than the other six drivers in the top teams. But with a lead of over 50 points going into the last five races of the season, it’s most probable that he will clinch the title this year as well.

For the constructors’ title however, things look a bit different. With Checo Perez being nowhere in terms of speed or podiums, Red Bull have lost the lead to McLaren, and as things look right now, the team from Woking in the UK can be expected to hold on to that lead. And Max had better continue to perform, because otherwise Red Bull could end up behind Ferrari as well, which currently trails it by only 34 points. For a team as spoiled as Red Bull, that would be nothing short of catastrophic.

I’ll dive into all the driver changes for next season in a future post, as there’s plenty to cover. For now however, we need to address the recent mid-season switch at RB, Red Bull’s junior team, where Daniel Ricciardo has been replaced by Liam Lawson. Lawson is already a familiar face, having stepped in for Ricciardo during several races. It’s no secret that Ricciardo’s performance has been declining over the past few years across different teams, so it’s not very surprising that this likely marks the end of his F1 career. Bringing in a younger talent like 22-year old Lawson aligns with Red Bull’s long-term strategy, though Red Bull still need to find a replacement for Checo Pérez, most probably already for next season.

There we are – five races to go, and at least a constructor championship title to fight for with Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari all in contention. And even though it seems clear that Verstappen will take the driver’s title, Lando Norris most probably hasn’t given up yet. Neither has Oscar Piastri, who would love to score more points than Norris this season. And wouldn’t it be a nice conclusion for Carlos Sainz to win a race for Ferrari before his time with the team ends? And for Lewis to do the same at Mercedes? It’s pretty certain there won’t be any lack of excitement in the last part of the 2024 season – buckle up!