F1 season 2024 – the calm before the storm?

If you read this on the Sunday of publication, it means the F1 season 2024 is only one week away with the engines revving up for the first time on March 2 in Bahrain. 24 races are planned this year, making it the longest season ever if they all take place. The season will end not far from where it starts, in Abu Dhabi, in early December, and as I finish this post, the last day of official testing is already underway!

In a way, the 2024 season is shaping up to be a repeat of 2023. No one really doubts that Max Verstappen will add another world champion title to his and Red Bull’s belt, at least not yet, all drivers are in the same seat as last year, and all teams are the same, except in name. And yet, there have been two pieces of news before the season kicks off that have made the headlines: the first was Günther Steiner being fired as team head of Haas, and the second that Lewis Hamilton is leaving Mercedes for Ferrari at the end of the season.

The news were certainly unexpected!

To start with the Lewis, this is of course both surprising and exciting. Surprising since Hamilton has been part of Mercedes since what feels like forever and is in reality 11 years, a very long time in F1. He’s of course one of the most successful drivers of all time, but we also know of the difficulties Mercedes have seen in the last seasons, probably making a change feel like a good option, both for Lewis and the team.

I think we all look forward to seeing Lewis in a red car from Maranello, and we should also be thankful that the news was this rather than that of him retiring, which could also have been the case. It does leave the question however why the announcement comes now, given it’s a year away, but it’s probably as simple as once the decision was taken, the news would have come out anyway, and no one really doubts that Lewis is professional enough not to be distracted by this in his last Mercedes season.

Yet another reason for announcing the move now if of course also to leave Carlos Sainz enough time to find a new seat. Ferrari have very little reason not to be pleased with Sainz, who together with Charles Leclerc has formed on of the best driving duos the last years in a car that hasn’t always been as good as it should be. The decision to replace Carlos with Lewis cannot have been an easy one, especially since Lewis probably won’t hang on for the next five-six years. So far, it’s unclear if, and if so, for what team Carlos will drive in 2025, but I’d bbet a lot on him doing all he can in 2024 to prove Ferrari wrong!

“What the f* Gene? It wasn’t my fault!”

The other piece of pre-season news was that Günther Steiner, one of the most carismatic profiles of F1, is no longer at the helm of Haas. He’s being replaced by Ayao Komatsu who’s been an engineer with the team since 2016. Let’s just say that I’d be very surprised if a Japanese engineer reaches the same level of flamboyancy as good ol’ Günther… He for one isn’t happy about the decision, although he’s made clear that Gene Haas as owner is in his right to do whatever he likes.

To an outside observer, it seems pretty obvious that Haas’s issues have very little to do with Steiner as a team head, and a lot to do with Haas suffering from too small a budget and resources to keep up, and thus have a car that simply wasn’t fast enough. I’d be very surprised if Komatsu-San can do a better job result-wise than Günther, but I guess time will tell! If the testing that just ended is anything to go by, it doesn’t look good, since both Haas cars ended last…

Coming back to this year’s season, I really can’t think of a year when there was as little movement between drivers and teams as now, given we’re at zero. Daniel Ricciardo is now confirmed as permanent and not just a replacement for Nicky de Vries, next to Yoki Tsunoda in the second AlphaTauri, this year renamed to RB. Those who follow F1 know that Ricciardo’s career has been rather shaky in the last years and not characterized by the best decisions, so let’s hope this works out for him.

Whether first or last on the grid, Sauber will certainly be seen!

Next to that, the only piece of news on the team and driver side is that what used to be the Sauber team and then became Alfa Romeo Racing is now again called Sauber (or rather Kick Sauber, with Kick being the new sponsor). For someone living less than 10 kms from the factory here in Switzerland that’s pretty cool, especially since the team has managed to hang in there since 1993, and has nurtured some of the best drivers out there, including Kimi Räikkönen and Sergio Perez, among others.

Of course all 2024 cars are new, but technical changes are largely absent, knowing that 2025 will be the last year with the current V6 engines. We’re not fully clear on what will replace them, but let me stick my neck out and say that it will probably not be rumbling V8’s…

With such calm before the season starts, will there be a bit more storm when the lights turn to green next Sunday? Let’s indeed hope so, since yet another season with Red Bull and Verstappen dominating proceedings as has been the case in the last years would be slightly…. boring? I’ll leave you to guess who was fasted in the last pre-season training session…

Anyone wants to bet against this ending?

F1 pit stop: a record breaking 2023 season!

The F1 season 2023 has come to an end, and in terms of the the title, it’s been a very unspectacular one from start to end, and at any point there in between. Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing are very much the uncontested champions of this year’s season, of which there was really never any doubt – except for yours truly, who at some point was at least hoping things would heat up a little…

The title was his already after the sprint race in Qatar on 7 October.

Looking a bit more in detail at the numbers around Max’s triumph makes it even more impressive. His 19 wins this season is more than anyone has ever achieved, as are his 21 podiums (which of course means that when he was on the podium, with only two exceptions he claimed P1. That most definitely says a bit about the character of the man!). 10 of those 19 wins were also consecutive, which, you guessed it, is yet another record.

Max of course excels not only in driving skills but also in consistency and mental strength. This is perhaps best illustrated in a comparison with Sergio “Checo” Perez, his teammate. There is really no doubt that Checo is one of the best drivers on the grid, but as we sum up the season, he is still lightyears away from Max, especially in consistency and mental strength, which I would claim contribute more than you may think to Verstappen’s success.

The season had ups and downs, but in the end Checo managed P2

There was thus never any question on who would become world champion, but it was far more unclear that Checo would manage to hold on to P2, especially in the latter part of the season when he faded quite considerably. In the end he did fight off Lewis Hamilton on Mercedes by a relatively healthy 51 points, making it a 1-2 for Red Bull. For team boss Christian Horner, it also means beating his arch rival Toto Wolf at Mercedes for the third year in a row, which is probably almost as important as the title itself…

All was not gloom and doom for the other teams though, especially in the second part of the season. Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren all became more competitive basically with every race. The biggest surprise was perhaps McLaren where Lando Norris made seven podiums this year, all in the second part of the season, and Oscar Piastri added another two. McLaren are clearly on a positive trend, and Piastri is still young, so next year could be really interesting for the team!

McLaren and Norris are now on par with Mercedes and Ferrari, and sometimes above!

Especially in the second part of the season, Ferrari also looked like a much better team than at any time in the last years, which is down both to improvements with the car, but also with Cédric Vasseur as new team boss, clearly bringing some well-needed strategy, and reminding the team of how to execute a pit stop properly. In the end Leclerc and Sainz finished fifth and seventh respectively, with only six points and one Lando Norris in between them.

The biggest surprise in this year’s first races was no doubt Aston Martin Racing and Fernando Alonso, who managed to score six podiums in the first eight races of the year. Unfortunately he faded after that, only adding another two in the latter part of the year, but still ending the year in a very impressive fourth position, giving a good illustration of the potential of the car, in stark contrast to his team mate Lance Stroll, who was nowhere to be seen.

Alonso proved both him and the car (still) have a lot to give!

Looking further down the ranking, there really isn’t much to write home about. Renault Alpine is stuck somewhere in the middle, better than the teams behind but no longer comparable to McLaren, as they’ve been in previous years. Behind them, Alpha Tauri, Williams, Alfa Romeo Racing and Haas (roughly from best to worse) are as far from the top as Elon Musk’s ability to stick to deadlines.

Tsunoda produces more f-words than points in most races, Alex Albon manages to get more out of the Williams than should be possible from time to time, Bottas and the Alfa Romeo car he’s driving both look about as tired, and not even team boss Günther Steiner can make Haas feel like an attractive proposition for next season, unless something changes pretty dramatically.

Thus, as we close the books for 2023, it looks pretty much the same as when we did so in 2022. Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren are all closer to Red Bull than they used to be, but right now it’s difficult to see how they would be able to challenge neither the team, nor Max Verstappen as a driver next season. I guess the risk that Max’s ego no longer fits into the Red Bull car needs to be taken into account, but assuming he manages to squeeze it in, at this stage the money is on a fourth Verstappen-Red Bull title a year from now!

F1 pit stop: MAXimizing!

The European summer has come and gone and as always, it leaves me with a sad feeling, especially since in central Europe, it was a very nice one. Although a passionate skier, I’m no friend of the dark season which will soon be upon us, but that also means we’re entering the final straight of the 2023 F1 season. In my last update just before the summer, fresh out of a bull fight in Madrid as I was at the time, the analogy with the charging bull Fernando Alonso was a rather obvious one. A few months later, it’s clear some things have changed while others have stayed the same. The bull analogy is still working, but the green bull has been replaced by its red cousin, which wasn’t doing too bad at the beginning of the season either.

The red bull, or rather bulls, reign supreme!

The way Red Bull has dominated the 2023 season almost makes you forget the pretty significant updates to the cars we saw before last season, aiming at making the races more exciting, and very much succeeding in doing so last season. This year, Max Verstappen has won 12 of 15 races and been on the podium in all but one. By the time of my last update though, Sergio “Checo” Perez had won in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, which made me speculate that Perez may, just maybe, be good enough to challenge Max for the title. Well I was wrong, because since early summer, Max’s winning streak has continued while Checo has faded significantly, as has Alonso on Aston Martin. Instead, we’ve seen a slow but steady return to form of three other teams and drivers: Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren.

Looking at them in that order, the biggest change in Maranello is probably that with the arrival of Cédric Vasseur as team head, Ferrari now has a strategy when they start a race, something that seemed to be missing most of last season. Nowhere was this more visible than in the fantastic race in Singapore a week ago, where it was the strategy, next to Carlos’ sublime driving that gave him and Ferrari their first win for the season. The end of the race was the most exciting this year, with Sainz managing to keep his first follower Norris behind him but within DRS distance for something like five laps so that the two chasing Mercedeses that were both quicker wouldn’t be able to pass Norris, and thus threaten himself. It was highly impressive driving, and a very deserved win!

Brilliant driving and a brilliant win for Carlos in Singapore!

Mercedes on their hand have clearly progressed in the last races with Russell and Hamilton still forming one of the best duos among all the teams. They’re also quite close result-wise, with Hamilton still having the edge, being third in the championship. The biggest progress is however to be found at McLaren. Lando Norris still dominates the young Oscar Pilastri, but the latter is progressing fast in his first full season and in the last races, both have enjoyed a car that’s quicker than both Mercedes and Ferrari.

It’s thus pretty clear that Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren are the three teams that will finish second-fourth when we round up the season (but not necessarily in that order). It’s also not impossible that whilst no one will challenge Max for the title, should Checo’s recent difficulties continue, both Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso could challenge him for second place, if all the stars align. That would however require Alonso and the Aston Martin returning to the form of the first half of the season.

Mercedes have clearly improved as the season has progressed

Further down the field it’s especially Alex Albon who continues to surprise positively, managing to regularly place the not-very-fast Williams in the points. He seems to be enjoying his time at Williams, but there are of course limits to how fast the team will ever get. That unfortunately goes for the other teams in the second half as well, with both Alfa Romeo Racing and Haas failing so far to progress in any way. Given the experience in the driver line-up of both teams (Bottas on Alfa Romeo, Hulkenberg and Magnussen on Haas), there’s really no doubt the cars, or rather the development budgets, are the real problem.

Things look somewhat better at Alpine (Renault) whereas they look somewhat worse at AlphaTauri, where Tsunoda swears far more while driving than he collects points. AlphaTauri have also replaced Nyck de Vries with our favorite Aussie Daniel Ricciardo, who without wanting to be mean has a great talent for picking teams on their way down rather than up. With AlphaTauri however there’s only one way to go, and Ricciardo will be there for all of 2024, so maybe, just maybe, things will start to look up both for the team and him again. That’s all relative though, since the chance of AlphaTauri or any of the small teams clinching a podium are all but inexistant.

Ricciardo will need all of his significant neck muscles to win points in the AlphaTauri…

As we enter the last straight of the 2023 season, Red Bull is thus as dominant as ever, and Max is in a league of his own. It’s also obvious that he’s gained a new level of maturity in his driving, being far calmer and, by the looks of it, in perfect harmony with the car. Most probably, the season will end with a Red Bull one-two, since although Checo has had a streak of bad luck and seems to be out of form, it should still be enough to hold on to second place.

The other top teams have come somewhat closer but the difference to Red Bull is still significant, and the question is perhaps not if they catch up this year, but rather if they manage to do so next. It’s interesting to listen to Lewis Hamilton in this regard, being very open about what he still sees as a very wide gap to Red Bull, and the Mercedes car still suffering from issues, notably in terms of rear downforce. Leclerc is just as open in terms of Ferrari’s progress but what still remains a significant gap to Red Bull. That doesn’t really bode well for an exciting 2024 season – but let’s perhaps finish 2023 before we worry about that, and hope we get some excitement for second place in the championship!

F1 pit stop – half time!

After 13 rounds of the 2022 season we’re into the summer break, with the next race not happening until early September in Max Verstappen’s home country of the Netherlands. It’s thus time to take the temperature on the season so far and doing so, a few things seem pretty obvious already now. Most importantly, I’m not really sticking out my neck by saying that I’m pretty convinced Max will be the relatively uncontested world champion in 2022, for the second time around. However, predicting who will finish on places 2-6 is much harder, almost as hard as guessing if Ferrari will ever get their theme strategy together. These are really the main questions for the second half of the season.

Things are going well for Max!

To start off though, there’s been two big pieces of news on the drivers’ side worth mentioning, especially since it all happened in the last days. Firstly, on Wednesday night ahead of the Hungarian GP, Sebastian Vettel informed Lawrence Stroll, owner of the Aston Martin F1 team, that he’s retiring at the end of the season. Aston would have loved to keep him for another year, especially since Seb has delivered more than what should be possible with the current car, but Lawrence is said to have accepted Seb’s decision, mostly driven by his wish to spend more time with his family. Lawrence didn’t lose any time though and instead picked up the phone to Fernando Alonso whom he knows well, offering him what sounds like a deal too good to say no to. It was all done in five days and Alonso, about to turn 41, will thus step in to Seb’s shoes as a mentor to Lance Stroll and hopefully with a faster Aston car next year.

Neither Alonso nor Lawrence Stroll apparently saw a need to inform Renault/Alpine boss Otmar Szafnauer though, who claims he only learnt the news through the official F1 communication. His disappointment is indeed understandable since with Ocon and Alonso, Alpine had a driver pairing helping them to what is currently P4 in the constructor championship, ahead of all teams except for the three big ones. There’s a slight déjà vu here remembering Ricciardo’s move from Renault two years ago when he seemed to be on the way to McLaren, where things have basically gone south every since. Let’s thus hope Fernando knows what he’s doing and that Aston will start performing next year!

Thanks for everything Seb – Ferrari will never forget you!

At the top of the ranking, it’s really all about Max Verstappen. Red Bull started the season on par or sometimes perhaps even slightly behind Ferrari, but the last races have confirmed that they’re back where they were last year, with Perez doing a mighty fine job in spite of being the most obvious “second” driver of all teams, currently ranking P3 in the drivers’ standings. Max leads by a margin of 80 points on Leclerc in second, his driving is as phenomenal as his ego is large (as we know, a combination any good racing driver needs to have!) and in combination with the most professional team on the circuit, it’s really difficult to see how anyone could challenge him, especially since Ferrari insists on giving him the helping hand he doesn’t need through one tactical misstep after the other.

Binotto doesn’t have much to smile about currently…

Hungary was the latest but probably not the last example of tactics going wrong, having everyone except Ferrari F1 boss Binotti scratching their heads. With 30 laps to go and with Leclerc in the lead, the team pitted the car and put him on hard tires. In a way they had no choice as it was too early for softs, but Leclerc hadn’t been complaining about the mid tires and would probably have lost less time staying on them until the softs would have made it until the end. Those are his thoughts, not mine. This is the latest in a series of mistakes, such as for example in Leclerc’s home race in Monaco when Ferrari pitted him at the same time as Sainz, which cost him the win, or Montreal, where the team pitted Sainz rather than Leclerc who was in the lead, again costing him the race. If you add to this mechanical failures and to be fair, also driver mistakes, the second part of the first half of 2022 hasn’t been much to cheer about in Maranello. Binotto however doesn’t see the need to change anything and insists everyone’s happy. So far Leclerc and Sainz don’t say anything, but If things don’t improve quickly in the second half, I very much doubt that will remain the case.

So what about positions 2 to 6? Well, there’s in total only 27 points between Leclerc in second and Lewis Hamilton in sixth, with Perez, Russell and Sainz (in that order) between them. Anyone of the six can thus take second position and if the current trend is anything to go by, it’s definitely Mercedes who are on the way up, and I would tend to put my money on either Russell or Hamilton, together with Perez. Then again, if Ferrari manage to find the form of the first part of the season again, it could also be Leclerc or Sainz. Not much of a conclusion here as you can see, time will tell!

If Russell finishes in P2, will Lewis call it a day?

Except for Alpine Renault who as mentioned are currently in P4, there’s really not much to cheer about for any of the other teams. Alfa Romeo started the season well but don’t seem to get anywhere currently. The same goes for McLaren and especially Daniel Ricciardo who is systematically underperforming Lando Norris, Haas where Mick Schumacher is however starting to show his talent, Aston Martin and Alpha Tauri where not much is happening, and finally Williams who have more speed than last year but still not enough to secure them points in most races. McLaren, Alfa Romeo, Alpha Tauri and Aston Martin should all be on stable footing in terms of their financing, I’m less sure if that’s the case for Haas and Williams, so the second half of the year may well decide if we see them again in 2023. Stay tuned!

F1: the winner took it all!

1293 – that’s the total number of laps of this past F1 season in all 22 races. Years where the title has been decided in the last race are rare, not to speak of the two top contenders being on equal points before the final race. A year where the title is decided in the last lap of the last race of the whole season is at least to me unheard of in the modern era, and yet that’s what happened last Sunday. Max Verstappen took his first world championship title, equally a first for a Dutch driver, and we all learnt who Michael Masi is, more on that later. You could safely say that anyone who still claims F1 is boring after this season has very high demands!

The champagne brand “Carbon” was unknown to me…

Even if it was at the risk of being at the end of the line in terms of commentaries on the season, I didn’t want to write this post last Sunday since given how things turned out, it wasn’t excluded that there could be an after-play during the week. Luckily though, it hasn’t really come to that. Mercedes did indeed protest against the un-lapping of only some cars in the before-last lap. The protest was however turned down, as was the subsequent appeal earlier this week, and whatever you think of the outcome, no one, and certainly not Lewis, would have liked the title to be decided anywhere else than on the race track. There is however reason to think that the king may have lost his crown not just for this year, even though any kind of bet on what will happen next year given the massive changes that I detailed earlier this year (see here) is difficult to make. Before going into all that, let’s however start with a short recap of the last part of the fabulous 2021 season.

There were six races remaining after my last update after the Turkish GP and it was pretty clear already then that this would go down to the wire. Bottas won in Turkey, the last race of the season where another driver than Max and Lewis finished first or second. After that Max would go on to win in the US, Mexico and Abu Dhabi, with Lewis winning three in a row in Brazil, Qatar and Saudi. This made it very clear that Mercedes was back in the game and that the car, which in some races earlier in the season hand’t looked that competitive anymore, was again as fast as earlier in the season. The only problem for Mercedes was that so was Red Bull. This was also reflected by Bottas and Perez, who both ended the season strongly with each two third places over the last six races. And if anyone needed any proof of Perez’s quality, that was to be found in his heroic driving to keep Lewis behind him during a few laps in Abu Dhabi – to me, perhaps the best driving of the season. This also meant that Valtteri ended his career with Mercedes with dignity before leaving for Alfa Romeo next year. Both Mercedes and Lewis have appreciated him for his loyalty and fairness, but it’s also true that he lacks the final percent needed to win races, and that both Lewis and Max have tons of.

Solid, loyal, but lacking the killer instinct. Good luck at Alfa Romeo, Valtteri!

Behind the two top teams it stayed a close call for third between McLaren and Ferrari, where in both cases the drivers are also close to each other. In the end Ferrari came out on top with Sainz ranking fifth in the drivers’ championship and Ferrari third in the constructors’. McLaren is not far behind though and Ricciardo certainly doesn’t regret his move from Renault since winning the Italian GP in September. Internally though he ranked second to Norris, as Leclerc did to Sainz at Ferrari. Alpine (ex Renault) is not far behind and forms so to say a third group with AlphaTauri, and Tsunoda on AlphaTauri was perhaps the driver that improved the most in the last part of the season. In the last part of the classification Aston Martin was clearly ahead of Williams and Haas, but not on par with any of the better ranked teams.

Things really heated up two weeks earlier in Jeddah when during the race Max and Lewis on several occasions were very close both on and off the track and Max at one point, when ordered to give back his position to Lewis, decided to brake heavily on the straight with Lewis right behind him. Lewis hit him, luckily only lightly, but it’s difficult to see what Max’s plan was here (and no, he didn’t just lift his foot as he claimed, the braking was measured at over 2G…). That and the rest of the race along with the fact that it put both of them equal in points was obviously enough to have everyone on their toes for the last race. For those in my generation, this almost reminded us of Senna and Prost back in the day and it was really hoping for the best but fearing the worst that we went into last week in Abu Dhabi.

Jeddah gave an indication of things to come…

Things couldn’t have looked better for Max before the race, starting from pole. They couldn’t have looked worse after the first straight as Lewis took the lead after what must have been the best start of the season. With Verstappen expected to take the start, not only because he was on P1 but also being on softer tires, he made a perfect dive into turn seven, pushing Lewis off the track, but Lewis managed to re-join in the lead. The stewards didn’t see it as requiring an investigation, and I agree. Max’s move was perfect and Lewis chose not to break in order not to lose position. Lewis then kept his distance and the race was rather quiet until a virtual safety car phase around 20 laps from the end. Max came in directly to change tires, but Lewis didn’t. He questioned this directly on the radio, saying it was kind of a risky decision. Oh how right he would be… After the VSC phase there was 20 laps to go with Max around 18 seconds behind, and it became clear pretty quickly that he wouldn’t catch Lewis. And then with five laps to go Latifi decided to create some excitement by putting his car in the barrier. The ensuing final safety car phase would change everything and make Michael Masi famous.

Famous overnight – Michael Masi

Masi is the F1 race director and thereby the guy who decides what happens in different situations during the race, such as for example the un-lapping of lapped cars during safety car phases. As any race director would be, Masi has sometimes been criticized during the season for his decisions, but no decision has been as controversial as the one last Sunday to let only the cars between Lewis and Max un-lap before the final lap, and then pulling the SC car in quicker than usual, such as to leave one lap of racing. With Max right behind Lewis on completely fresh tires (he used the fact that contrary to Lewis he wouldn’t lose any positions to change tires again during the SC phase), it was pretty clear how it would end.

The rules state that any cars should be allowed to un-lap, which Mercedes understands as all cars, and Red Bull as any, meaning not necessarily all. That’s a pretty good example of a not very clear rule. It’s however important to remember that un-lapping all cars, if done in time, wouldn’t have changed the outcome, and not un-lapping any would potentially not have done so either – even if there was only one lap remaining I would think that all drivers between Max and Lewis would more or less have thrown themselves off the track to let Max by. It’s however clear that Masi’s decision to pull the SC car quickly came out of a desire to see the season ending racing, and even though we all like and sympathize with that, it’s obviously not in the rules. Then again, had Mercedes changed tires on Lewis’ car during the VSC phase as they very well could have done, and as Lewis wanted to, he would have been in a far better position to fend off Max during the last lap. We’ll never know if it would have been enough and as Mercedes has also realized this week, it is what it is, and it’s in no way undeserved for Max.

Two great champions!

Max’s full season and career so far couldn’t be more impressive. When he came to Toro Rosso in 2015 at the age of 17 he became the youngest driver in an F1 race, and he has since won 20 of them since joining Red Bull in 2016 where he’ll stay until at least 2023. Racing runs in his blood with his father Jos also being an old F1 driver who competed for Benetton back in the day. What all drivers mention as outstanding with Max is his aggressiveness and winning instinct which is second to none, including Lewis. It may be over the top sometimes but it always is with the top guys (perhaps with the exception of Lewis…). This is thus a well deserved title and I’d bet it’s not the last one. For Lewis the future risks getting harder in general with the immensely talented George Russell now taking Valtteri’s place. His instinct looks to be pretty comparable to Max’s, so Lewis may be up for the fight of his life to reclaim his title. We’ll know how it all turned out at the end of next year but for now, big congratulations to Max Verstappen, the F1 world champion in 2021!

F1 pit stop: racing until the end!

It’s high time to do a quick pitstop and check the status of the F1 season as we’re around 3/4 in. The short answer to that is that it’s tighter and more open than it’s been in many, many years, which is of course really exciting. Since my last update from July after the Austrian GP that you can read here if you missed, it, we’ve had another seven races counting the one today in Turkey, and on these we’ve had no less than five different winners. That’s right, even though the title will go to either Hamilton or Verstappen, we’ve reached a stage where more teams and drivers fight for individual wins, and that’s of course exactly the way it should be!

Esteban Ocon won the Hungarian GP

As mentioned this summer, this is partly driven by the fact that next season will see radical changes to the cars, something I will come back to in the coming weeks, but which means that development efforts on this season’s cars have stopped or at least been heavily reduced. Small tweaks are certainly still done, but somehow the mid-sized teams seem more successful doing so than the large ones. It does however have the positive consequence of more open racing, and that will most probably remain the case until the end of the season.

In my last post from July, Red Bull had won the last five races and Max Verstappen had won four of those. I therefore stated that if Mercedes didn’t wake up rather quickly the season risked being over and indeed, Mercedes did wake up however, and I guess no one really expected less. Starting in Silverstone, traditional a track favorable to Mercedes, it was a 1st and 3rd position for Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, and Lewis than moved on to win in Russia as well, finishing on the podium of most other races. Bottas then also won today’s race in Turkey, but with the two Red Bulls on the podium as well. That allowed Max to move ahead of Lewis again in the standings so it’s pretty clear that this will go down to the wire and for the first time in a long time, Lewis is seriously challenged for the world title.

He’s got the smile and momentum back!

So what about those other teams? Well, McLaren has only become more competitive, partly that goes for Renault as well, Aston Martin is somehow also part of the mix, at least when conditions become a bit unpredictable, and what George Russell delivers in an improving but still inferior Williams car continues to impress. Lando Norris (Mc Laren) is currently fourth in the standings betwen Valtteri (third) and Perez (fifth), but should really have been third as there is really no excuse for him not winning one of the best races so far, that in Sotchi two weeks ago. He led the whole race and when the rain came with a few laps to go, he refused to follow team orders to come in and switch tyres and ended up in the sand with two laps to go. That’s a real rookie mistake but it’s one that shouldn’t have happened.

This is when you should have come in, Lando…

The other big news in the last weeks is of course that Valtteri Bottas is leaving Mercedes at the end of the season, and that George Russell is taking over his seat. This was widely expected but it was nice to see it being done in an amicable way, with Valtteri departing not directly but rather at the end of the season. He will then go to Alfa Romeo Racing, taking over retiring Kimi’s seat, and that Russell replaces him is of course no surprise. What George has managed to do with the under-performing Williams car this season is simply sensational, and of course we also remember when he replaced Lewis during a race at the height of Covid and was very close to winning it. For him, this is a terrific chance of showing how good he really is. For Valtteri it’s obviously quite a large step in the wrong direction, and thus probably one towards retirement.

My guess is that Russell will make life tougher for Lewis than Valtteri did.

A final thing to note in this more competitive field than we’ve had in many years is how close many teams’ drivers are. Sainz and Leclerc (Ferrari) are sixth and seventh in the standings with half a point between them. Alonso and Ocon (Alpine) and Vettel and Stroll (Aston Martin) follow, next to each other, and even though Lando is ahead of his team mate Ricciardo and Max is a head of Sergio Perez, the distance is getting smaller. I guess the way to read this is that we have a season of very good drivers, in most cases getting as much of their cars as is possible – and that’s exactly how it should be!

F1 pit stop – the future looks orange!

We’re nine rounds into the F1 season 2021 and it’s time to check the temperature and see where things stand before we move into the mid-season with the British GP in two weeks, the Hungarian at the end of the month and then the Belgian at the end of August. I dare say that even those who find F1 predictable and boring have something to cheer about this year, because so far, predictable is certainly something this season is not. Before moving into the action, let me just note that at the start of the season I wrote that if we were lucky, we may see spectatcors return to some of the races this year. Gladly that is now the case, and it’s great to see!

The Dutch fans didn’t miss Max’s win in Austria!

Going back to where we left off, in my last update I put up the question whether Max (Verstappen, Red Bull) was going to catch up with Lewis (Hamilton, Mercedes) and I believe we have the answer. Not only has he caught up with Lewis but he has in fact clearly passed him, just as Red Bull has passed Mercedes to become the team to beat in the line-up. The most recent five races have all been won by Red Bull with Max winning four and Sergio (Perez) one. But it gets even worse from Mercedes’s perspective, since Lewis has only been on two podiums in those same five races, clinching second place in France and in the first of two Austrian GP’s. Perez has meanwhile also found his footing and is ahead of Bottas, so currently there is little doubt that Red Bull and Max are favourites for this year’s constructor and driver’s title. The die-hard Mercedes optimists will note that Silverstone in two weeks is a typical Mercedes track and they’re right about that, making it a pretty decisive one: if Red Bull beats Mercedes in Silverstone, that’s probably it. If they don’t, my bet is that that’s it anyway.

Lewis is only ahead of Max outside of the track these days

Behind the two top teams, McLaren and Lando Norris’s progress is no less suprising. Lando drives like there’s no tomorrow and he does so in a fast car that is now very close to the two top teams. Daniel (Ricciardo) was apparently right in his call to join McLaren rather than stay at Renault, but he needs to up his game considerably to keep up with Lando who’s clearly emerging as the team’s first driver. He’s finished P3 three times this year and it’s probably only a question of time before he wins his first race. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz are doing what they can in their Ferraris which are faster than last year but still inferior not only to Red Bull and Mercedes, but currently also to McLaren. With only two points between them, the two Ferraristi are no doubt the most balanced driver pair on the grid!

The mid-field sees roughly the same teams as earlier, except for McLaren. Aston Martin where Seb Vettel has found his footing which is very nice to see, but the car, although improving, isn’t really there yet. AlphaTauri, where Pierre Gasly continues to deliver strongly but Yuki Tsunoda, although having the speed, seems to have great difficulty in avoiding crossing white lines and getting penalties. Alpine is there as well with notably Fernando Alonso showing his routine, but the car is less performing than last year. Pretty much the same in other words but with Gasly’s continued strong performance and Seb finding the speed again standing out as positives.

In reality, Lando’s car is mostly far ahead of Ricciardo’s

Finally there’s not much to report on from the back of the field. Kimi (Räikkönen) and Antonio (Giovinazzi) can hope to take a point here and there in their Alfa Romeos if some of the top cars have problems, and George Russell will certainly do so in the coming races as it’s truly amazing how he manages to get every last hp out of the Williams car. By the way, speculation as to whether he will replace Bottas at Mercedes before the end of the season doesn’t go away. Finally, whilst Haas remain very much last in the line-up, at least Mazepin seems to have found some stability and stopped endangering other drivers in every race. Mick Schumacher beats him in most races, but he can’t work wonders either in a car that is nowhere close to where it was a couple of years ago.

If you’re thinking that Mercedes will never let Red Bull win the title this season without a fight, that would certainly be true in a normal year, but in view of the very big changes that will hit the F1 circus next season and that we’ll come back to in a separate post in the coming months, Mercedes as well as other teams have officially stated that they will not develop their 2021 cars any further. It’s therefore difficult to imagine that something could happen that fundamentally changes the outcome this year, and that would mean that we’ll see a new world champion, one who for the first time ever is from the Netherlands and whose name is Max Verstappen!

F1: same same but (not very) different

Four races into the new F1 season and it’s time to make a first pit stop and see what’s happened so far. Any unexpected positive surprises, any upsets, or for that matter any disappointments? So far the four races have taken place in Bahrain, Italy, Portugal and today in Barcelona, Spain, and we now have a two-week break before race number five, the most traditional of them all in Monaco on 23 May. The executive summary so far would go something like same same (as last season) and so far not very different, but if you read on I’ve done my best to add a bit more colour to that.

What is very similar to last season is the two top teams. No changes neither here, nor in the respective top drivers – Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. After Lewis’s win today in Barcelona, Mercedes have an 29-point lead in the constructors’ championship, with Lewis leading the drivers’ by 14 points ahead of Max. The difference is smaller than last year however, with Max pretty much breathing down Lewis’s neck, as shown by the podiums so far where he’s been on all, and winning in Italy. Behind the two, Bottas isn’t surprising on the upside any more than last year, continuing to play the role of the good soldier, but also to show that he’s slower than both Lewis and Max. Red Bull newcomer Sergio Perez on the other hand is off to a promising start (already far better than his predecessor Albon was at any point during his time), and it will be interesting to see if with a few more races under his belt, he can challenge the top duo, or become the natural number three on the podium.

Lews and Max fighting it out at a rainy Imola GP

So to use some hockey terminology (but with no respect for the fact that a hockey line always has three players…), if the first line is made up of Mercedes and Red Bull, the second is also relativeliy clear, at least so far in points, consisting of McLaren and Ferrari. For McLaren this is a continuation of the positive trend from last year, with Lando Norris so far ahead of Daniel Ricciardo, even clinching third place in Italy. Then again, Ricciardo was ahead of Norris today in Barcelona, so things may be turning more even. Over at Ferrari it’s a bit disappointing as the car doesn’t seem to have become more competitive than last year. So far newcomer Carlos Sainz Jr. is also well behind Charles Leclerc. Before the season I wrote that I saw Leclerc-Sainz as perhaps the best driver-duo of any team this year. I guess it’s too early to say, but Carlos Jr. needs to step up his game for that to come through. As for Ricciardo, it still remains to be seen whether his move away from an uncontested first seat at Renault to McLaren was the right one, but there is no doubt that McLaren is faster than Alpine (ex Renault).

Norris continues to deliver at McLaren!

The third line is quite crowded this season, regrouping Alpine, AlphaTauri, Aston Martin (ex Racing Point) and Alfa Romeo (and no, it’s not because they all start with an A…). Except for Aston Martin, the remaining three can be said to be roughly where they were last year, and again, with the established drivers so far ahead of the newcomers. Fernando Alonso (Alpine) shows that he hasn’t forgotten how to drive a car although he’s still behind Esteban Ocon who this year is faster than at any point previously. Yuki Tsunoda still needs to prove himself at AlphaTauri, and especially vs Pierre Gasly. The big disappointment so far is Aston Martin and within the team, unfortunately again Sebastian Vettel. The car seems far less competitive than last year (I’ll leave it open as to whether that’s because it’s no longer a copy of the Mercedes…), and Vettel is so far far well behind Lance Stroll and yet to score a point. Finally Kimi Räikkönen and Antonio Giovinazzi are quite even at Alfa Romeo, which is pretty much where it was last year, meaning at the end of that third line.

That leaves Williams and Haas in the fourth line, which is a bit unfair to Williams who are so far clearly better and well on their way up if they keep progressing. Pretty much all of this is thanks to George Russell who continues to deliver as much as the car allows for, so far scoring 8 points. Haas on the other hand is even more disappointing than last year, something not even the talent Mick Schumacher clearly displays can change. The Haas is simply not competitive, but arguably the even bigger issue is the team’s second driver Nikita Mazepin who came as a condition for the Russian sponsor money from his billionaire father, and who is outright dangerous on track. The list of incidents so far has resulted in an equally long list of Instagram jokes on him and the new nickname Maze-spin, and his private behaviour isn’t making him any new friends either. Haas is in dire straits and in desperate need of sponsorship money, but this is of course the worst side of F1, when a team is forced to, and accepts taking on an unfit driver as part of the package. I really do hope things improve before something really bad happens, as Mazepin is a danger both to himself and others.

One of the funnier Mazepin jokes making the rounds on Insta…

There we go – we still have 19 races left this season so things can, and hopefully will still change around a bit. Will Verstappen be able to challenge Lewis for real this year? Will Perez become as fast as Max, and will Ricciardo prove that his move was the right one? Time will tell as we get further into the season, stay tuned!

F1: A dramatic end to a strange season!


Those of us who thought the last races of the year would be boring after Lewis made everything clear early November, well, we were wrong. Very wrong. Combining the drama we could have done without (Grosjean), the excitement with the oh so tragic end (Russell) and the final (well, almost) confirmation of drivers and teams for next season, this is probably the most dramatic season end in many years. But let’s start from the beginning, after my last F1 update that I posted early November and that you can read here.

Some very scary moments in Bahrain – look at what remains of the back of the car…

Starting with what we could all have done without is obviously Grosjean’s terrible crash in the first of two Bahrain races two weeks ago. Honestly I think many of us thought anything like this was impossible in modern F1, but at the same time it was also great to see how all the protective measures implemented worked wonderfully – with exception of the barrier that cut his car in half and caused the fire… Among recent safety equipment is the halo that wasn’t really acclaimed when it came. Now, Grosjean said himself that without it he would have been dead. You could add that had everything the drivers wear, from feet to head, been done in another material than Nomex, which withstands 800 degrees C for up to 35 seconds, he would also not be alive, or at least badly burnt, given it took him 28 seconds to get out of the fire… It’s unbelievable that he made it basically without being hurt. We won’t see Grosjean in F1 next year and it’s great it all ended on a dramatic but in the end positive note.

In the week after the first Bahrain race, we then learnt that Lewis had tested positive for Covid and that Mercedes would replace him with George Russell (Williams) for the second Bahrain race. I described George as the big British hope for when the day Lewis retires in my previous F1 post (link same as above), but hope is one thing. The reality is that so far he has never scored a point in F1, in the improving-but-still-too-slow Williams car. Oh how things were to change over the weekend….

If Bottas thought it would be easier racing Russell than Hamilton, he was wrong…

First, Russell set the fastest time in the free training on Friday, which he followed up with qualifying second to Bottas on the grid on Saturday. In the race he then passed Bottas in the first corner and led the race without any problems for the coming 60 or so laps (out of 87), until Mercedes (yes, Mercedes!) manages to screw up a pit stop so badly that he had to come in for a second one, and then for a third one after a puncture. After the first pit stop he was quickly back in the lead. After the second he was back in fifth, but needed only 2-3 laps to for second place (this included overtaking Bottas in a way that didn’t make the Finn look particularly good), After the third stop he came out 15th and by now, even the very calm George was swearing over the intercom. With six laps left, and did however still manage to finish 8th. It goes without saying that he was devastated, but also that anyone who saw the race realized that this was certainly not the end of it for George. Should Lewis not re-sign with Mercedes, which he still hasn’t confirmed, I’m willing to bet a face mask that Mercedes arranges for George’s contract with Williams to be cancelled. If not, he is a very likely successor to Lewis the day the 36-year old quits, which may well be after an 8th title in 2021.

It wasn’t to be this time, but I don’t think this is the last we’ll see of Russell in the Merc dress!

With Russell having the roller-coaster of his life that he could have done without, the one positive thing was that it allowed Sergio Perez to claim his first F1 victory, and few have been more well-deserved. Perez incredibly still doesn’t have a seat confirmed for next year, and how Aston Martin (as the team will be called next season) could put Sebastian Vettel before Perez beats me, but I’ve written enough of that before.

Most of the drivers are by now confirmed for next season, and the most notable is of course that Mick Schumacher will take one of the two Haas seats. Mick is Michael’s son, he looks like a perfect mix of his father and his uncle Ralph, and he didn’t get here just on having a famous name (although that never hurts). He won the FIA F3 European Championship in 2018 and the Formula 2 Championship in 2020 and has so far accumulated three wins in 11 podiums. There will obviously be huge pressure on the 21-year old Mick and everyone will always and constantly compare him to his father, and you can only hope he’s able to handle it. He will certainly also have to answer questions around the current state of his father of which we know very little, certainly not a good sign.

Ferrari has a a very excciting line-up with Sainz Jr next to Leclerc – as long as the car starts performing again….

Next to Grosjean, Kevin Magnussen is the other noteworthy driver who won’t be returning next year, going over the pond to race in the US IMSA Sports Car Series. After Daniel Ricciardo’s decision to move to McLaren, Renault (which will be called Alpine next year) looks forward to the F1 return of Fernando Alonso which promises to be interesting. And McLaren could be a better move than expected for Ricciardo given the team just signed a GBP 185m deal with American sports group MSP Sports Capital, who clearly have their eyes set on race wins next year. Again, it would be a great shame not seeing Sergio Perez in 2021, and late November Perez said he will take a sabbatical unless he’s offered the second Red Bull seat next to Verstappen. If you ask me that’s a very clear choice given Albon seen over the last two years has been a huge disappointment. He’s picked up somewhat in the last three races after Christian Horner gave him an ultimatum, but he’s still miles away from Max Verstappen. Perez on the other hand has consistently delivered over and above what anyone expected and to me is clearly the better driver. Unfortunately I don’t think anyone plans to ask me, so we’ll see what happens in the coming weeks.

And so the strangest season in memory came to an end this afternoon in Abu Dhabi. Lewis was back, meaning Russell was back in the back of the field in his Williams. Lewis said he didn’t feel 100% which was probably true given he “only” qualified in third and finished the very undramatic race in the same place, after Bottas in second and Max Verstappen in first. Max had started on pole for the first time this season and this was his second win. He is by now a clear number 2 behind Lewis and will most probably be an even bigger threat to the latter in 2021!

Lewis is still in front, but the margin is getting smaller!

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Lewis fends of challenge to his crown – for now

Today’s Hungarian GP presented the toughest challenge yet to Lewis Hamilton’s current status as the undisputed Nr 1 F1 driver. Max Verstappen beat him to the pole (as did Bottas, Lewis only starting 3rd) and also took the lead in the race, and further fended off several attacks from Lewis at various points. With 20 laps to go, Mercedes then took the big gamble of calling in Lewis for a change to soft tires, at a point when he was on Verstappen’s heals. The tire change gave Max the benefit of a 20 second lead, but a combination of Lewis’s fantastic driving skills, the faster soft tires and Verstappen’s deteriorating medium tires meant Lewis caught up with him and took the lead almost unchallenged with two laps to go. A brilliant combination of team tactics and top driving!

A very well-deserved, 7th Hungarian GP win for Lewis Hamilton

The weekend was another disappointment for Valtteri Bottas who won second place on the grid only to fall back following an unfortunate accident with Leclerc early in the race, and finished in 8th place. My bet is that he won’t be driving for Mercedes next year, meaning Verstappen could perhaps take his seat, if Mercedes dares having two of the sport’s biggest egos in the same team?

Speaking of changing seats, Daniel Ricciardo’s move to Renault this season with the aim of winning races again will probably go down as one of the worst moves in F1 history. Renault is nowhere near the podium and in Hungary, not even near to claiming any points. I wouldn’t be surprised if Renault pulls the sponsoring for next year, leaving us with one team less and Ricciardo (and Huldenberg) without a seat.