The world’s best EV? Driving the Taycan 4S

On October 19, 2025October 19, 2025 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, ev's, News1 Comment

In a post back in August that you can find here. I made a very unscientific comparison of the depreciation of EV’s vs traditional ICE cars. The conclusion was on one hand that EV depreciation is indeed as bad as it feels, but also that ICE’s depreciate quite heavily as well and seemingly, far more so than they used to. I’m pretty certain that most of you reading this blog agree that “peak car” is pretty far behind us, and the conclusion from the comparison therefore seemed to make the case for hanging on to your existing jewel for a while longer.

That said, the thought has been nagging me that I may be missing out on something. After all, billions after billions has gone into the development of this new car concept referred to as of EV’s, and these cars cost half a fortune as new. Surely it must have led to something that is the next step in automobile development? To me, the car my thoughts have focused on is the Porsche Taycan, hailed by many as the best EV out there, and no doubt the best-looking.

When talking about the Taycan, like most people I initially preferred the station wagon. With time though, the sedan has kind of grown on me and today, I find it at least as stylish as its equally good looking EV sibling, the Audi e-tron. As mentioned in the post back in August, although prices have started to stabilize, there’s definitely still deals to be made, so when I saw a well equipped Porsche Taycan 4S being advertised by a Porsche dealer close to me for CHF 64.000, from an original price of close to CHF 180.000 four years ago, I figured it was worth checking out.

Given this is not an EV blog, it’s perhaps useful to remind us of the history of the Taycan. It was launched as a 2020 model in late 2019, initially as Turbo and Turbo S (leading to a pretty meaningless discussion on how on earth they could be called Turbos when they didn’t have one…), later complemented by the 4S and the entry level only called Taycan. The station wagon was launched a year later on an extended platform, either as a sleek wagon or as Cross Turismo with a slightly more rugged look. At least here in Zurich, it’s the Cross Turismo you see most of on the road.

The Turbo and Turbo S came with the so called Performance Plus battery as standard, a 93 KwH pack giving them a theoretical range of around 430 kms. The 4S however came with a smaller, 79 KwH pack as standard, with the larger pack being optional. Given the smaller battery pack only has a realistic range of around 350 kms, that option is pretty critical for having any kind of secondary value on your Taycan. The good news is however that all Taycans run on an 800V platform, meaning charging times are among the best in the business. The bad news, which depending on where you live is pretty bad indeed, is that they’re not compatible with the Tesla superchargers.

*The boot space behind the relatively small opening is not very big*

The Taycan 4S I tested at my local Porsche center came from one previous owner with around 60.000 km on the meter. Importantly, given the many electronic issues many Taycans suffered from initially, the car was Porsche Approved with a 12-month guarantee. As can be seen, it was dark grey on black and quite well equipped with the larger battery package. In this configuration, it weighed in just shy of 2.600 kgs, without driver… The exterior colour suited the car well, but the black interior made the whole thing a bit somber. That said, black is the best colour if you want to hide plastics of which the Taycan’s interior has a lot, although they seem to be of better quality than on some other brands.

Walking around the car (which was parked next to a 992.1 on one side and my BMW 540i Touring on the other), it was easy to see that the Taycan was far more comparable in size to my Beamer than the 911. Checking the numbers later, it’s actually 2 cm longer than the G31 BMW at just under 5 metres, and 10 cm wider, at just under 2 metres width. Sitting behind the wheel, you also have a feeling of a big car.

They’re plenty of space in the front, far less so in the back, and not very much at all in the boot, although the Taycan has a relatively useful frunk to complement it. The interior otherwise looks nice and feels well put together, and given how well its screens are laid out and how good the tactile response is, to my surprise I didn’t miss physical buttons. Screens will never be better, but in the Taycan it’s at least almost as good.

*A fine interior. Lots of plastic, but overall a solid feel.*

Taking off means pressing the start button left of the steering wheel where traditionally the Porsche key should sit, and then a lever on the right hand side. The immediate feeling which, was then confirmed over the following drive, is again that of a big car that it takes some practice to place correctly. It feels very well balanced between front and rear, no doubt helped by the low center of gravity, but it’s nothing you throw into a corner like a 911. The steering is ok, although those complaining about the steering on the 991 generation that I mentioned in my post on the 911 Turbo S would be apalled by it, as it feels very synthetic and not that precise. I’d claim the steering in my 540i is better overall.

Even though the car is heavy, the 563 hp from the two electric engines (520 hp with the smaller battery pack) are plentiful, and no one needs more power than this. Unlike most EV’s, Porsche also uses a two-speed auto box sitting on the rear axle, with a short first gear to preserve the full acceleration and a longer second gear for higher top speed than a one-speed box would allow for. This also makes the electric engines run more efficiently as high speeds, saving energy – which again makes you wonder why the very sleek car doesn’t have a better range? The box is only noticeable when it shifts under hard acceleration, but that’s also what Porsche wants, trying to give the Taycan more of a mechanical feel.

*The technical setup of a Taycan. An advanced – and heavy – thing…*

The talented engineers in Zuffenhausen have also chosen a different braking and regeneration (regen) setup than most EV’s, again trying to make the Taycan feel more like a “normal” car. If you lift off the accelerator, the car will only coast (roll freely) with no regen, and thus no braking. When you brake however the regen kicks in fully, so that it’s only under heavy braking that you use the actual brakes. I would say that whether it was regen or actual braking, this is where you really feel how heavy the car is. The braking is solid enough, but it feels like the brakes have to work pretty hard to bring all of the 2.6 tons to a standstill. The km’s left in the range did however climb a little after some pretty heavy braking, so I guess it works.

This leads to the same conclusion as always with EV’s, that weight is the elephant in the room. My 540i station wagon weighs just under two tons or around 600 kgs less than the Taycan, a difference which roughly equals the weight of the battery pack. The Taycan is a fine car that drives really well for an EV, but it’s no sports car, and whoever calls this an electric 911 doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

Then again, that’s probably not a fair comparison given it has four seats and a decent luggage space. So what do you compare it to? To keep things simple and staying with BMW, if you want a sports car, an M3 or an M4 of a similar age are of similar size and price. They have about 100 hp less, but also weigh close to a ton (that’s 1000 kgs!) less. And if it’s more the GT aspect you’re after, a 4-series coupe in an equally stylish body will do the job with less power, but also far less weight. Of course there are other comparable models from Merc, Audi and others, and all are in the same price range.

*As an example, a 4-series grand coupe is yours for even less money. In every aspect a better car.*

Would I consider a Taycan? If for some reason I was forced to buy an EV, a used one like the one I drove would probably be a good choice. Whoever paid more than EUR 180.000 for it initially must be out of their mind or really convinced they were saving the planet (which, talking about EV’s, boils down to the same thing…). Therefore, unless someone forces me, I’ll just note that although impressive, the Taycan doesn’t move the needle neither in automobile terms, nor in Prosche terms. It’s not better, and much less spacious than my G31 540i Touring of the same age, or other comparable ICE cars.

The only needle the Taycan moves is that of the scale, and no weight-loss medicine beyond plastic is on the horizon for EV’s. That’s a nut even Porsche can’t crack. Driving the Taycan did one thing for me – it put the nagging feeling that I may have missed out on something to rest. When I take the trouble to test drive a car, I usually come away with a general feeling that it’s more exciting or better than my, by all means excellent 540i. The Taycan was the exception to the rule.

When the cold reality catches up…

On January 12, 2025January 12, 2025 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, ev's, News1 Comment

Dear fellow car enthusiasts, firstly a Happy New Year, I sincerely hope that 2025 will be a healthy and successful year for you all! That’s certainly not what’s happening in LA as I write this and my thoughts are with any of you who may be directly or indirectly affected, sincerely hoping the fires get under control soon and that 2025 improves from there!

As we set off on a new year in the wonderful world of cars, I’m thinking about a few changes to the format of the blog that you may discover during the year. One thing you’ll see me do is become a bit more flexible in the format and perhaps also the regularity of posts. The idea is not to drive less, but rather to do so in a variation of long and short, such as to be able to better “seize the moment” when for once, I get my phone up quickly enough to catch that wonderful car just passing. We’ll see how the year develops, but before that, we’ll start it off in the spirit of what we’re seeing in various areas right now and that you could call reality catching up. In this case, it’s yet another illustration of the wonders of electric mobility, but here in the form of an example I had trouble believing myself.

The non-Swedes among you will most probably never have heard of Malung, an unspectacular small town in the middle of the country. That would probably go for many Swedes as well if it weren’t for the fact that it’s located about 350 km north of Stockholm, on the way to some of Sweden’s leading ski resorts. 350 km is obviously close to the true (not claimed) range of EV’s with large battery packs in winter (best case really, since there’s no motorway leading to Malung and the traffic typically rolls at 80-90 km/h, otherwise they wouldn’t even get this far), and what the picture below shows is a part of the very long waiting line to one of Malung’s two Tesla charging stations last weekend.

*This is not a joke – but it’s only a small part of the looong waiting line…*

What you can’t see from the picture is on one hand the full length of the line (you’ll have to resort to this link for that, scrolling down a bit in the article) but also that the outside temperature was -20C, and that at one point more than 150 cars were waiting up to 3-4 hours. The issue is not only that the EV range falls even quicker at -20C, but also that EV’s don’t heat up in the same way as an ICE does, meaning the interior cools down much quicker. So in other words, you had dozens of families waiting for hours in sub-zero temperatures to charge their Tesla. What a pleasant way to start or end your vacation!

I can easily imagine some “why on earth did you say we should buy an EV??” going in that line in the cold, but If you think this has led to a big re-think on electric mobility in Sweden and the realisation that EV’s may have their place, but not as a viable transportation for long winter journeys, then think again. Tesla has an ongoing conflict with a labour union in the country, so the debate is instead focused on the company’s unwillingness to come to an agreement with the union, and that being the cause of the issue. To put this in context, around 10.000 people live in Malung, so conflict or not, I think it’s rather improbable that Tesla would build another few charging stations in a small city in Sweden for a few hundred cars when demand is at its peek, three-four weeks per year, don’t you?

*This is what Sweden can look like in the winter. Not EV-friendly.*

The issue is of course another. If it took 30 minutes to fill up an ICE and you needed to do so every 350 km, then we’d see lines at petrol stations as well during the holidays. This is thus another fundamental downside of EV’s, to add to an already long list. This particular weekend is one of a handful of similar outliers per year in terms of peak demand, but they will continue to happen, and as the number of EV’s increase, charging stations will not do so exponentially, as that is not economical. In other words, expect waiting times to become worse, not better.

The local who filmed this whole thing didn’t queue up with the rest as he drives a diesel and according to the interview in the article, has no plans to change to an EV anytime soon. The title of the article reads “the kids are cold”. I would think that goes for the driver’s love of the recently acquired Teslas as well…

Fat cats and tweed jackets!

On December 1, 2024November 30, 2024 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, ev's, News, Opinion2 Comments

I travel quite frequently to London on business and on my last trip a few weeks ago, I had some time to escape the work routine and actually enjoy the city a bit. Of course, London is just as little representative of the UK as New York is of the US. Still, the things we consider as British are very present in London as well: rain for one, especially at this time of year, but then also the pubs, the Guinness they serve, the men in tweed jackets who drink it… And then, there’s of course the cars. Rolls Royce, Bentley and Aston Martin certainly rank as more fancy, but the brand most people associate with the UK, and also the one most of us can reasonably aspire to, is Jaguar.

Unless you’ve lived under a rock the last two weeks, you’ve no doubt seen the storm erupting over the video announcing Jaguar’s re-branding. To say that it’s been criticized is a serious understatement. Everything, from the androgyne AI-like people, over the fact that no cars are shown, to the new logo: Jaguar lovers (of which all of a sudden, there seems to be a suprisingly large number) have been on the barricades over the sacrilege of destroying Jaguar’s image and by extension, the Britain they cherish. And since we’re on video clips, this one illustrates that view pretty well.

You certainly don’t need me to write yet another post on how terrible the rebranding is, there’s already plenty of those around. And actually, even though I believe Jaguar’s (I’ll still write that with a capital J, thank you very much) days are counted, I’m not sure the rebranding is the cause. Because just as little as the UK can today be summarized as a pint of Guinness in a tweed jacket or whatever way Jeremy Clarkson would like it to be, Jaguar was very far from a healthy car brand to start with. And, whetheryou like it or not, Britain has moved on, as has the rest of the world.

Jaguar is part of the Land Rover group, which in turn is owned by the Indian Tata Group. However, contrary to Land Rover itself who under Tata has profited, and continues to profit from the SUV trend, Jaguar’s model line-up hasn’t really done so. There were two small SUV’s, the E-Pace and the F-Pace, both of which are quite alright (and one of those especially so, more on that below) but also quite far from the British spirit described above and also from the the poise of the Land Rover line-up, which I guess you could call less understated and far more in your face design-wise, which seems to be what people want.

Then there was the I-Pace, an EV SUV which wasn’t very remarkable at all. The four-door XE sedan and XF station wagon were even less interesting, and the line-up was rounded off by the only car Jaguar really deserve credit for, namely the F-type coupé and roadster. However, the F-Type is a 10-year old model by now and thus one due for replacement quite soon, and anyway a two-seat sports car is not something a brand can build its existence on.

*An excellent drive and good-looking too, for those wanting something else than a 911.*

To summarize all of this in numbers, Jaguar sold around 150.000 cars in 2019, a number that they couldn’t have survived on long-term, had they remained a stand-alone brand. This year, that number was down to 50.000 cars before Jaguar earlier this year suspended all new car sales, hence the usage of past tense in the paragraphs above. They do this to re-launch – surprise surprise – as a fully electric brand in 2026, which is of course what the rebranding campaign is meant to illustrate.

Jaguar was thus quite far from doing well at the launch of this campaign, and anyway, very few marketing campaigns through the years have had enough effect to make or break a brand, as some of the comments around this would have you believe. I’d even question whether rebranding in Jaguar’s case is such a bad idea, when you see the convulsions some car brands have ended up in, trying to combine EV’s and ICE’s. If your ICE sales numbers are dipping and your line-up is old and mostly uninspiring, and you’re convinced a new era is around the corner, maybe a rebranding is the right way to go?

*Will the whole thing end with a contested re-branding video?*

Unfortunately, there is a couple of issues. The first of those is timing, and the second is a five-litre V8. Starting with timing, my reasoning would have been far more convincing had this happened two-three years ago, when everyone (well, almost) was still convinced that EV’s would take over the world. Now, we’re at a stage where EV sales are crumbling in every single market (except perhaps China where to put it mildly, you can force people’s hand…), and car manufacturers are doing all they can to pedal back on their “full EV” commitments. In that market, Jaguar now wakes up and goes full EV in a way that doesn’t allow for any pedaling back, should it not succeed.

Then, there’s the five-litre compressor V8 that is one of the greatest engines out there. I had it in my Range and in the Jaguar line-up, it’s fitted in the top-of-the-range F-Type and F-Pace models. The F-Pace received quite a complete overhaul in 2022 and the five-litre V8 version called SVR has had motor journalists drooling all over it, calling it the best small SUV out there, and perhaps the best car in the market in terms of engine sound. That’s a sound it shares with the F-Type, a less spectacular but very capable coupé-roadster in an attractive packaging.

*Going out with a bang – the lovely, 5-litre compressor V8!*

Jaguar has thus sacrificed two great V8 models for a full EV experiment, debuting not now, but in two years, but already now being two-three years late. They do so with cars that so far no one has seen, but that they claime will be REALLY luxurious, and REALLY expensive. If you’re wondering how that could possibly go well, you’re not the only one. But it’s the full strategy they’ve embarked on, rather than a rebranding campaign or a new logo, that is Jaguar’s real problem.

Meanwhile, for all intents and purposes, what we used to know as Jaguar just ceased as a brand, meaning that if you can track down a new F-Type or F-Pace in V8 form, you could be down for the deal of your life, since dealers will be really anxious to get these out of their shops. And in the pre-owned market, I strongly suspect both of those will hold their value better than most at their respective, depreciated price point, and especially in the case of the F-Type, perhaps even become a collectible down the line. Until that day comes, I promise you’ll never get tired of listening to that V8!

The roaring comeback of the ICE!

On September 8, 2024September 15, 2024 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, ev's, News, OpinionLeave a comment

Between US elections, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle-East, and whatever else may have passed through your news flow this summer, chances are that you’ve missed something that’s gone a bit under the radar. And that, my friends, is more or less a complete turnaround in the business plans of the world’s leading car manufacturers, and the roaring comeback of the good old combustion engine!

The ICE is making a comeback at a level that no one would have expected just a couple of months ago. Doing so, it proves a few points that won’t be new to readers of this blog, but that I’m happy to note anyway, since it’s always nice to be right: firstly, if you want to sell stuff, there needs to be demand. Secondly, if something cannot hold in the long term, it will break sooner or later. And thirdly, it’s unwise to bet against the world’s largest car company, especially when it’s Japanese. Let’s dig in and look at what you may have missed while sipping your pina colada at the beach!

To set the scene, let’s start with something that EVO, the UK car magazine that this blog takes its inspiration from, noted in its editorial back in July, namely that within just the last month, three new combustion engines involving five global car brands were announced. In all cases, it was about ICE’s optimized for hybrid usage with electrical motors, efficiency measures, adaptations to sustainable fuels etc. Other signs that the combustion engine is far from dead have also flourished over the last year, perhaps nowhere more so than in Modena with the Purosangue’s naturally aspirated V12. The fact that Ferrari shares are among the best investments you could have done over the last years also don’t really speak in the direction of a quick demise of the ICE.

*Owning Ferrari stock would have given you more than 700% in the last 10 years, most of it in the last two years. Hell, you could buy an ICE-powered Ferrari for that!*

It’s also interesting how differently car CEO’s speak today, compared to just a few months back. The first one that made me swallow my coffee the wrong way was Peugeot CEO Carlos Tavares, who during a car show went on camera, stating in the blunt way only a Frenchman can that electrification is nothing car manufacturers have chosen – it’s something Brussels (meaning the EU) has imposed. His body language made clear he enjoyed it about as much as a rotten slice of foie gras. Unfortunately, Stellantis (the group Peugeot belongs to) have replaced him since the interview.

A few weeks later it was Ola Källenius, the Swedish CEO of Mercedes-Benz, who until recently was very happy to tell everyone about Mercedes’s fully electrical future but now sings a different tune, whereby combustion cars are still very much part of the Mercedes mix, alongside hybrids and EV’s. That’s of course a direct consequence of the lukewarm reception Mercedes EV’s have gotten from the market, especially the soap-like EQS. Now the talk is of a new S- and even E-class coming with as options combustion, hybrid and electrical engines.

*What a new S-class could look like – far better than the EQS! (Illustration Larson)*

A few months earlier the same message had come from BMW in Munich, confirming several combustion engine initiatives over the coming years. To round it off, in the same week as this is published, Volvo joined the long list of manufacturers stepping away from an all-electrical future, in Volvo’s case by 2030. The talk is now of reaching 90%, however including various types of hybrids.

None of this is really surprising. Because what all these car CEO’s seem to have forgotten, but actually should know better than various politicians and other policy makers, are the laws of supply and demand. And what has become painfully clear is that there is no demand for EV’s on the scale the political class would like there to be (if you need to read up on why they won’t do anything for the climate and are currently one of the most unethical industries around, see here, here, and here). From a European perspective it’s actually even worse, since the day, should it come, when demand improves, it’s not European, but rather Chinese manufacturers who stand to profit from it.

Let me give you a couple of pretty staggering examples of this in real life. The Porsche Taycan is generally hailed as the best EV around from both a driving and a charging perspective (if not range). Two years old and with less than 30.000 km’s on the meter, it can easily be had for 30-40% of the price as new – that’s a depreciation of over 50% in less than two years for the best car in the segment! And with the new model out, those numbers will certainly not improve going forward.

A Polestar 2, a European EV favourite, far less good than a Taycan but also far cheaper at around 75-80′ as new, will without problems be yours for 30-35′ with the same kind of mileage as the Taycan. And should you like soap, the numbers for the Mercedes-Benz EQS are similar. It’s getting to a point where European car dealers no longer want to trade in EV’s, not just because of the insecure value, but also since they tend to sit in the courtyard far longer than traditional cars.

*A year ago, it would have been in front of the dealer’s entrance. Today, it’s hidden in the backyard.*

What’s happening is that disappointed owners, either outright or through various types of leases which typically have a 36-month life (at least in Europe), trade in their EV’s and when doing so, opt for a conventional car to replace it with. That’s the case in up to 90% of cases in the US, as various reports have shown. Why? Well, unrealistic range promises, especially in winter, a lacking charging infrastructure, and various technical and quality issues with many EV’s all make for a not very attractive cocktail. As energy prices rose in parallel to the ownership and will continue to do so for every windmill and solar farm that is set to replace conventional energy, it turns out the savings over a traditional car aren’t that big.

The combustion engine technology is now over 150 years old, removing the technology risk that is very much present in the EV market, and that all the talk of battery revolutions only contribute to. Two years ago it was just a matter of time before solid state batteries once and for all solved the range and charging issues. Now, it’s instead sodium batteries that will do the same, and are simpler to develop. Who in their right mind would buy an EV, more expensive than a traditional car, with a technology that risks being obsolete in a year? You take this together with all the other EV issues you know well by now, and the logical conclusion is that other than in cities or for shorter trips, the ICE still reigns supreme.

As this sinks in, the effect is that conventional manufacturers go back to what they’re good at, i.e. technological innovation around the combustion engine, and EV manufacturers that are not very well capitalized start going belly up. Fisker already did (making it the second time the Dane Henrik Fisker manages to bankrupt the same brand), others are heavily at risk (Polestar starts having pretty severe cash issues and a share price that is at rock bottom) or not in control of their destiny (Lucid who are at the mercy of the Saudi money tap). All this is normal – every new industry has a lot of companies who don’t make it. It was just the buzz of the last years that may have made it look different.

*Marcus Brownlee called the Fisker Ocean the worst car he had ever tested. Six months later, the company was bankrupt and owners have hopefully learnt to check the health of the brand next time around.*

What is not normal is however the elephant in the room called China, that as said previously, I believe will dominate the low- to mid-priced EV market going forward. Why? Well, with a home market of over a billion people, unlimited state subsidies and a supply chain of rare metals especially from Africa that has been carefully crafted over the last decade, China has done everything Europe should have done to be successful, had they really meant business. Instead, the EU now wants to put tariffs on Chinese EV’s, which less than a month after it was announced, was countered by China doing a deal with Saudi Arabia, where Chinese EV’s for Europe will be produced with no tariffs. And there won’t be any sanctions or tariffs on Saudi going forward either, that oil they also sell, is very helpful when it gets cold.

Going forward, the world will thus hardly be fully electric, and this is where the world’s largest brand Toyota comes in. Although they were heavily criticized by the environmentalist lobby, the Japanese stuck to their guns and continued to produce and perfect hybrid solutions. Their logic is simple and should have been easy enough for every car company to understand: if the supply of rare metals and other input materials is limited, then splitting a large battery pack into four smaller packs for four cars, rather than a big one for one, makes a lot of sense. Hybrids also eliminate all the issues linked to range, charging, and under-capitalized car brands no one has heard of.

*A Toyota hybrid drvetrain – expect to see more of these going forward!*

So where does all this leave us? Well, conventional manufacturers will be all too happy to reverse course and fall back on what will be the conventional car market going forward – meaning hybrid solutions around the combustion engine. And should there be an evolution around e-fuels, we can probably do without the whole hybrid package as well. On the other side, there will be EV’s at various price points, working well for cities, shorter trips or people preferring the technology. And yes, should we in the end get a battery revolution in terms of range, charging and more sustainable input materials, maybe they will take over -but that’s neither for tomorrow, nor next year.

It’s pretty incredible that it’s taken us this long to get us to the only place that made sense from the beginning, but as said initially, if something cannot hold, it will break sooner or later, and the dreams of 100% EV’s just did. Personally, i’d be delighted to consider a hybrid. I’d have nothing against driving fully electric on shorter distances, and reducing my fuel consumption on longer trips. The ethical issues linked to rare metal excavation are still not solved, but I guess you can’t have everything, and things are at least improving in this regard. Mark Twain once replied to a letter by saying that “the report of my death was an exaggeration”. Mid-2024, the same thing is just as true for the combustion engine!

Pretty little lies…

On August 20, 2023August 20, 2023 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, ev's, News, Opinion1 Comment

You remember Dieselgate? If not, it was the emissions scandal in 2015 when it emerged that Volkswagen, keen to sell more diesel cars in the US and doing so under the slogan “clean diesel”, had manipulated the software of several diesel engine types so that these produced less emissions only during test cycles, not in real life thereafter. It emerged that a total of 11 million cars with the same software had been sold in other regions as well, notably in Europe, and after a few months of management denying any knowledge of anything at all (What? Do we build cars??), the group’s chairman Martin Winterkorn had to resign.

*Martin Winterkorn having a bad day at work…*

Of course this was nowhere close to the first scandal in the car industry. To stay in modern times, just the year before, issues emerged around GM’s management after it had delayed a major recall regarding ignition switches which could lead to the engine turning off while driving. In 2009, Toyota scared the world as some of its cars accelerated unintentionally, which of course no one at management level knew anything about. And in 2016 and 2019, as if Dieselgate had never happened, Mitsubishi and Fiat Chrysler were caught violating emission regulations or lying about fuel consumption. The list goes on and on, and now it seems we’re there again. This time however, it’s the stock market darling that has been found with not one but both hands very deep in the battery p… sorry, cookie jar.

*Toyotas accelerated by themselves, long before self-driving…*

As Reuters uncovered a couple of weeks ago, since about 10 years, Tesla has been programming their cars to show rosy range projections and use these in their marketing. More precisely, the software was set to show a longer, unrealistic range until the battery was half depleted, and then to switch to a more realistic one. The result (and desired effect) was of course that customers bought cars believing they would have a longer range than they actually did. Many of them would then complain to Tesla and book an appointment to investigate the issue. In between the contact and the appointment however, Tesla would tell them they had performed a remote diagnostic on their car, that everything was fine with the battery, and that the appointment was therefore cancelled.

With time, the number of complaining customers apparently became so great so that Tesla created a separate team with the task of killing complaints by proceeding as described, something that saved Tesla around USD 1000 per cancelled appointment. Apparently it was common for the responsible team to sound xylophones and dance on their desks for every cancellation. Personally this reminds me of “The Wolf of Wall Street” which is an excellent movie, but perhaps not the culture the renewables’ hero company is meant to portray. In a test from April this year by the engineering organization SAE International, it was shown that most EV manufacturers lie about range, but none more so than Tesla, whose three tested cars in reality had a range that was on average 26% inferior to what was claimed. Ouch.

The range of an EV will vary with conditions, driving style and temperature, as will that of a combustion engine, however then mostly depending on driving style. This leads to the two important differences with EV’s we all know of: firstly, that low temperatures limit the EV range disproportionally (and this by the way also if the car is parked in the cold during for example your ski holiday, as a friend of mine discovered in the French Alps last year…). Secondly, the fact that charging, although slowly improving, is still not comparable to filling up at a petrol station, neither in speed, nor in availability. What Reuters uncovered however helps solve the mystery around Tesla’s superior range claims. As it turns out, it had little to do with more efficient battery integration as a consequence of internal battery production, and more with dirty business practices, not too far from Dieselgate. Who would have thought?

Staying on the electrification theme, one thing that has been noticeable in Europe this summer is an increased number of EV’s from Chinese brands. It seems these are making rapid progress in Europe, doubling their market share from 4 to 8% (as a group) of EV sales since 2021. The biggest brands include MG (yes, sorry to say it’s Chinese these days), BYD (short for Build Your Dreams, the second largest EV manufacturer globally after Tesla) and Lynk & Co (owned by Geely). My understanding is that of these, only BYD is present in the US, however building buses rather than selling cars. In Europe however, given none of these brands have any brand recognition, they sell on the only argument of being cheaper than Western EV’s. And now Western car executives are getting nervous, promising to offer cheaper their own, cheaper EV’s going forward.

*This is what an MG looks like these days*

This means that range numbers, real or invented, will not be improving in the coming years. You see, the costliest part of any EV is the massive, 400-600 kg battery pack. It’s also the most controversial, as I’ve illustrated on this blog with a focus on cobalt, but where you could say the same about many other materials as well. Many of the metals in current lithium-ion batteries will quickly become a scarce resource since we are nowhere near extracting the quantities required for the electrification of the world, especially since the green movement in their infinite wisdom do everything they can to stop any additional mining. This also leaves us at the mercy of great countries like China and Russia, where China already sits on the extraction of a lot of these resources, and something like 15 of the 18 major cobalt mines in the Congo. When metals get scarce, China will of course make sure their manufacturers are supplied first.

*Lynk & Co, becoming increasingly frequent on European roads*

This bodes well for Chinese EV manufacturers, however given it takes decades to build a brand, they will keep selling on being cheaper for the foreseeable future, meaning keeping battery costs down. The way to do that is to substitute metals where possible, especially cobalt (horray!), against cheaper alternatives. Substitutes are however not as performing as metals used so far, meaning less stability and less range. Assuming Western manufacturers get their hands on enough metals to be part of the race at all, and that they indeed wish to build cheaper cars, they will obviously have to do the same. This will not change until we have some kind of technological revolution in batteries, which looks to be well beyond 2030.

The moral of the story is thus that EV builders are no more honest than traditional car manufacturers (if anyone really thought so), but also that Chinese EV’s will tend to make EV’s globally even less competitive. That they contribute nothing whatsoever to a cleaner planet is well known to those of you reading this blog regularly – otherwise please see here, here and here. In Germany, the MG ZS or Lynk pictured above are yours for EUR 35.000-40.000. They will take you something like 300 km, best case. The same money will buy you a VW Tiguan, equal in size, better in quality, with a modern, low emission petrol engine taking you twice as far and then needing five minutes to fill up. It’s also built in the West, not by underpaid workers without rights in a Communist dictatorship. Seems like a sensible choice to me!

The EQ XX and efficient efficiency

On April 16, 2023April 16, 2023 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, OpinionLeave a comment

The CW-value, known also as drag coefficient and meaning how smoothly a car (in this case) passes through air, is a notion that has been part of the automobile world since at least a 100 years. In 1921 Edmund Rumpfler’s “Tropfenwagen” (drop car) became the first aerodynamically designed automobile, to be followed over the coming decades by cars like the Chrysler Airflow or the Tatra 77. I first become aware of it at a young age when my father bought a new Audi 80 B4 in the early 90’s that looked like a bar of soap, much like its larger brother did, the Audi 100. No doubt Audi had paid a lot of attention to wind resistance and if memory serves me right, the car had a CW-coefficient just below 0.3. That became a bit of a benchmark from then on that proved difficult to beat, with many cars managing 0.27-0.28, but few going below that. And then we got the horsepower race that we’ve seen over the last years, where less attention was paid to efficiency, as it could just be compensated with a more powerful engine.

*The “Tropfenwagen” – the world’s first aerodynamically-designed car*

The reason things like the CW-value are more important than ever is of course EV’s, as the fight for every km or range needs to go over as little resistance as possible, especially since every EV is penalized by its weight. Mercedes set a new CW-value record with the EQS (another soap-like car) at 0.20. And then just a few weeks ago, the Stuttgart brand also started showing their project car EQ XX to a wider audience, which has a hitherto unrivaled drag coefficient of only 0.17. That also means that equipped with a 100 KwH battery pack, it is the first EV to have a range of over 1000 km (735 miles). This week we’ll look at what makes the EQ XX an example of efficiency, and what it teaches us in a broader sense?

The EQ XX is a prototype car which if it goes into production one day as is rumored, it will not be in its current format. The prototype however looks rather nice, far nicer than any other EV Mercedes currently produces. It’s not reminiscent of Rumpfler’s drop car, but clearly the drop form has been the inspiration, especially over the extended tail. Looking at it from the front, some of the air inlets are also quite similar to a Porsche Taycan. But it takes more than that to get the CW-value of a car down to 0.17, so what has Mercedes done? Well, starting up front and next to the very visible are inlets and outlets, there are also active flaps under the front bumper that will vary their position depending on conditions and speed. There are of course special tires and wheels to reduce air resistance, and the long tail of the car ends with an active, extendable rear diffusor, which at speed reduces wind turbulence. A bit surprisingly the EQ XX doesn’t have side cameras but rather standard mirrors, but there’s a logic to this as well since apparently, the gains in reduced wind resistance of cameras is lost again by the power consumed by the screen that becomes necessary in the gauge cluster or the dash.

*Four seats and a bit cramped in the back…*

On the inside (and seen from videos and photos, given Mercedes for some reason didn’t invite me to the launch…), emphasis is on recyclable materials for one, and low weight on the other. Every metal surface is firstly not metal but rather 3-D printed recycled plastic, and secondly, as perforated as possible without it breaking into pieces. There’s a giant micro-LED display going across the whole dash which is said to consume much less power than a regular screen. There’s no sunroof since the roof of the car all the way down the rear window (which is thus also absent) is covered by solar panels. This is something I’ve never understood why you don’t see on more cars (with the exception of the Fisker Karma and perhaps 1-2 others I’ve forgotten about). Of course panels have become much more efficient and on the EQ XX, they are said to power many of the interior functions, producing somewhere around 4 Kwh in a (bright and sunny) day.

*Solar panels cover the roof and the rear window*

As impressive as the low wind resistance is no doubt that the fact that the EQ XX weighs in at only a1700 kg, very remarkable for an EV with such a large battery pack. Through that and its efficient shape, it only needs one 180 Kw engine while still managing a time to 100 km/h under seven seconds and a top speed limited to 140 km/h (87 mph). And as mentioned, it has a range that quite easily seems to trump 1000 km, with as much as 1200 km set as record on test drives. The official consumption number is 8.7 KwH per 100 km, which is roughly half of a normal, rather efficient EV. What does it sacrifice? Except for the very limited top speed, it doesn’t offer much room on the inside and as far as I’ve understood, no boot (there is also no frunk given the air outlets). Driving it seems to be an exercise in efficiency, as the dash will constantly show if you’re consuming or generating power, and also how much different functions in the car consume in real time. It also has wind sensors around the car with the wind taken into account for range estimates.

*The power consumption of different parts is shown in real time*

Summing it up, from an efficiency point of view, it’s as much the low weight as the wind resistance that impresses with the EQ XX. After all, a Mercedes EQS with only a slightly higher wind resistance at 0.20 is nowhere near 1000 km of range given it weighs at least 800 kg, or almost 50% more. And this is of course the efficiency lesson in an electric world – wind resistance is important, but reducing weight by reducing the comfort features of traditional cars is as crucial. This also highlights the inherent conflict in building heavy luxury cars or SUV’s as EV’s, and so when Mercedes tells us it will bring the G-Wagon in an electric version, you have to wonder where the efficiency thinking went.

It’s really positive to see that advances in materials (recycled plastics etc.) and production methods (especially 3D-printing) will bring weight gains to an increasing number of cars, and at some point when the realization kicks in that we are nowhere near the battery materials required to electrify the whole world (see here if you want more thoughts around that), this will come to benefit combustion cars and hybrids as well. I would guess that exterior design will then also become a bit more the focus again as was the case with Audi back in the 90’s. That’s a good thing, since the world can well do without any more G63’s or 3-ton EV’s. I therefor think we’re heading towards a future that will be of a mix of different drive trains, but if the more traditional of these become more efficient and thereby consume less fuel, that can only be a good thing, both for the wallet and the environment!

Driving the craziest four wheels out there!

On January 15, 2023January 15, 2023 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, Test drivesLeave a comment

Shortly before Christmas I published my much read “nail in the e-coffin” post, setting out why I’m convinced EV’s are not the only way mobility will develop going forward. At the same time, I made clear that I have no problem with EV’s as a concept, as long as their owners come down form their high horses and stop pretending they’re saving the world. As I said then, this settles the background debate for me (if I didn’t manage to convince you until now, you’ve probably stopped reading anyway). That doesn’t change the fact that EV’s are part of the car world now, and no brand has made more of an impact in this regard than Tesla. Earlier this week it so happened that I had the opportunity to drive the most impactful Tesla of them all – the Model S Plaid. I didn’t know it then, but life was about to enter another dimension…

*Slightly more aggressive headlights, otherwise an unchanged look*

I’ve driven the Model S before but it’s quite a few years ago, so it was nice to see that what was at the time a pretty low-quality cabin now with the introduction of what you could call the second series has been significantly upgraded. The overall layout is still the same but the materials are nicer. It’s no luxury car, but it’s certainly not worse than other EV’s around the same price point (Audi E-tron being an example) The screen is now horizontal across all models, and this Plaid was also equipped with the yolk in place of a steering wheel. This is apparently something that varies by market but at least here in Switzerland, you can choose between a normal steering wheel and the yolk both on the normal S and the Plaid. More on the yolk later, but a clear benefit is that it opens up your vision of the instruments and towards the front of the car.

I chatted about charging, batteries and the new sound system (which is not as good as other high end systems, whatever Tesla says) with a very nice salesman who also showed me some parts of the system. This is of course where any Tesla shines and you have to give it to them, what they do on the tech side is still pretty far ahead of everyone else. An example would be how in other cars, you’re still lucky to find someone offering wireless Apple Car Play, when in a Tesla you don’t need it at all as you have direct access to your Spotify account. Or how I was thinking that it was crap that there was no memory buttons on the electric seats, only to be reminded that you can set up to 10 profiles in the system under which all your seat, mirror and steering wheel adjustments are saved. I may have doubts on our EV future, but such developments will hopefully be part of it more broadly.

*A horn button that small is dangerous – screen is not always intuitive but offers far more functions than a normal car*

The sales guy then spontaneously offered me to take the car for a ride straight away, which I did. Alone. I followed his recommendation for a route that included both city, motorway and a nice, curvy road over a lower mountain pass, all within 30 minutes of the city (Switzerland is a mountainous country…). I was reminded of two things straight away from previous drives in the Model S, namely to treat the accelerator with some caution (especially in this version…) and also that the recuperation is very strong and as I understand it, no longer adjustable. That really isn’t a problem at all though. It takes you a few minutes to get used to it but not more, and after that you basically drive the car with one foot. I really don’t understand car journalists and vloggers who have a problem with this, however it probably means that you need to actively think of using the breaks from time to time, or your discs risk rusting.

Another very special thing is of course the yolk. I’d like to think that you get used to it and in most situations, meaning everything except roundabouts and sharp turns, you can basically treat it like a wheel. In those situations though, unless you want to cross your arms you’ll need to move your hands without an obvious place to put them. You also need to be careful such as not to hit the small buttons on both sides of the wheel for notably indicators, horn etc. And when you do need the horn, you usually don’t have time to search for a small fiddly button rather than just smash the center of the steering wheel. It is indeed pretty cool not to have the steering wheel blocking your view forward but on balance, the disadvantages with the yolk outweigh the benefits.

*Materials are now far better than a few years ago, hopefully that goes for the quality as well*

The ride is good, as it’s always been with the Model S. I’ve never driven, but ridden in a new Model Y which is a terrible experience, with a suspension that is much to hard. The S is far better, clearly on par with normal cars. Handling is excellent, the car feels planted and neutral. It’s too heavy to dance around the corner but it’s very neutral in its behavior. The steering is precise and can be set with different levels of resistance, but none of them will communicate much of what happens below the car. It’s a different experience driving on a curvy road as you’re not using the break and it takes some getting used to, but I don’t doubt you would get used to it. In summary, I guess you could call it a somewhat synthetic experience. It’s different, but it’s not bad.

And then there’s of course the acceleration. Which is completely freakin’ bonkers. I’ve driven many fast cars, none of which come even close, and I strongly doubt anything does this side of a dragster or a fighter plane. It’s not only about the sheer power though, there’s also the EV immediacy, i.e. the power being delivered without any delay at any point. You hit the pedal (no, you don’t floor it in this car on a public road unless you’re tired of life) and in return you’re pushed back against your seat at the same time as your knuckles whiten. It’s completely and utterly crazy. It’s also completely unusable in anything except a straight line or a drag race. Trust me, I know how to drive on a curvy road and at no point was it possible to use anywhere near the full power of the Plaid.

*The S is still the best looking car in the Tesla line-up – if you ask me*

The new “normal” Model S does the sprint to 100 km/h in 3.2 seconds and has a longer range than the Plaid which is one second quicker to 100 km/h. Except for a carbon fibre spoiler lip on the trunk and the Plaid logo (which looks like the symbol of some religious sect) the cars are identical, and the normal S is 20-30% cheaper. The Plaid is of course nothing more than a prestige object but given that, Tesla should perhaps have worked a bit more on the styling to set it apart? Even putting that aside though, there’s really no reason to go for anything more than a normal Model S, especially since there’s quite a few reports of the brakes overheating quite quickly when the 1000 hp Plaid is driven with some ambition…

For a petrol head deciding to take the – big – step of switching to an EV, at around 100′ CHF in this country, the Model S is probably the best EV you can buy. It’s also the best car in the Tesla range. The Models Y and 3 are both simpler and cheaper in ride and materials, and even though the Model X has had the same interior updates, I’ve never met an X owner who hasn’t had problems with his gull wing doors. The Model S is however not only that, for me it also beats EV’s at a similar price point (think Audi E-tron, Mercedes EQE etc.). It’s better in areas such as range, infotainment and charging infrastructure, and is now also on par in terms of materials. All the others are far less powerful though, meaning they’re less fun. That last part is what makes it worth a consideration for anyone interested in more than the sheer transport from A to B. This petrol head is however not there yet!

The last nail in the e-coffin

On December 4, 2022April 16, 2023 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News6 Comments

This week we’ll put the nail in the coffin of any dreams of personal car electrification in the coming years. That may sound drastic, but regular readers of the blog will remember I did my first post on the subject almost two years ago and have followed that up a couple of times, notably last summer, at a time when we were all living in the world where markets were good and Putin was, well not in Ukraine. On one hand things have thus changed in a way which is highly significant notably for EV’s. On the other I came across some really astounding facts a couple of weeks ago, the silence on which is very surprising. But if the media won’t tell you about it, then I guess I will, and although it may sound pompous, I really do think this seals the fate for the worldwide EV roll-out our Western politicians want to see over the coming years. Let’s dig in.

There are around one billion 450 million cars in the world or if you prefer, roughly one car per five world inhabitants (although it rather splits like three in our developed world garages and non in many developing countries). Almost all these cars are powered by a combustion engine, the basic principle of which is identical to the one invented around 150 years ago. That resounding success is of course helped by constant developments and improvements, but even more importantly, by the fact that the fuel needed to power it has been, and continues to be, plentiful. Put differently, had we reached peak oil a long time ago, it’s reasonable to think that the development of alternative fuels would have started earlier.

*An E-Type V12 is a particularly fine example of the combustion engine!*

The skepticism I’ve long held to our electrical future has nothing to do with the cars themselves (although most, after you’ve pushed the pedal to the metal a few times, are about as interesting as watching paint dry, but that may change as more come to market – maybe). Rather, this comes from the massive issues related to EV battery production, the less than convincing carbon footprint they have, and the geopolitical implications of where the necessary metals are located. But actually, you don’t even need to go there, because in addition to all this, there’s the simple fact that there isn’t enough of the materials needed for the electrical future to be realized. In other words, the alternative to the combustion engine is finally here, and it’s not a bad one, but the world doesn’t have enough “fuel” to power it on a massive scale. And yet, whilst concrete plans are drawn up for a ban on combustion engine cars, no one talks about it.

*Never ever forget this picture – and apologies for the bad quality.*

We’re told we should replace all our traditional cars with EV’s as quickly as possible. Let’s say we’re slightly less ambitious and content with 500 million EV’s as a first step. After all, that’s about 480 million more EV’s than are on the road today and maybe we don’t need all of those 1.45 billion cars going forward (that would actually be a fair assumption…). To supply batteries for that number of cars would require mining a quantity of energy minerals equivalent to about three trillion smartphone batteries. That’s equal to over 2,000 years of mining and production for the latter. And even if that through some miracle were to happen, it would still only eliminate 15% of the world’s oil consumption.

We would of course in addition have to mine whatever is needed for the solar panels, windmills and electrification needs of industry that should happen in parallel. Naturally, this assumes that all the countries from which we get these metals pose no political or moral issues, and continue to happily supply us with everything we need. No reminder is probably needed that one of the two most important of these countries is Russia which is currently engaged in a war in Europe and actively turning eastwards and away from us. Another one is the Congo, where children work in mines under inhumane conditions to extract 70% of the world’s cobalt production. Lithium on the other hand mainly comes from south America, notably Bolivia, with severe consequences for the local ground water supply.

*Lithium extraction in Bolivia. Not really great for the local ground water…*

Given however electrification is the chosen and from what you hear, the single way of development, the logical consequence should be to have increased mining high on the agenda. Without that, where are the metals supposed to come from? Of course that’s not what happens, especially not in the Western hemisphere. Our politicians much prefer to travel by private jet to a climate summit (COP 26) in a developing country (Egypt) to lecture other developing countries on their usage of fossil fuels, only to negotiate more oil and mineral deliveries from the same countries when the lights go out. Around 400 private jets brought the dignitaries of this world to COP in October this year and as an example, Germany imported eight times more coal from South Africa in 2022 than in 2021. We’ve rather let the Chinese invest in new mines, preferring not to get our hands dirty.

The hypocrisy is truly hard to believe, But it doesn’t stop here. Few countries have been as vocal about human rights abuses in connection with the football World Cup in Qatar as Germany, and emotions were running high when its team wasn’t allowed to wear rainbow armbands during the games in defense of LGBTQ rights. As we know now, that didn’t prevent the German government from signing a natural gas deal with Qatar for the coming 15 years at the same time as the German team tried to qualify for the quarter finals – without multi-colored bands around their arms…

*Some of the more than 400 jets that brought world leaders to Egypt at the COP26*

This last example serves to highlight a crucial point of which we’ve been reminded a few times already, and will certainly be reminded of many more times this and next year: when energy gets scarce, there’s a risk of people not being able to heat their homes or industry needing to shut down because of lack of electricity, then every single politician will do what it takes to keep the lights on, be it with dirty energy and, as I suspect will increasingly happen, be it in spite of sanctions as well. That’s also when EV’s become more of a problem than a solution.

Let’s summarize the facts that should be obvious by now;

1) We don’t have enough storage or mining capacity to extract the rare metals needed to produce batteries anywhere close to the scale needed for the electrification of the world’s auto fleet. As a concrete number, a single large EV battery pack of 500 kg can require up to 250 tons of earth being moved to produce sufficient ore to extract the quantities of metals required.

2) There is currently (meaning at least for the coming five years) no alternative battery technology to replace our metal-based batteries, and there are no other metals that are as efficient as the ones currently used. EV enthusiasts will often point to cobalt quantities being reduced given how problematic its production is. It is however substituted with nickel, mostly coming from Russia, not with other types of metals. Any other type of metal would make the battery less efficient. And even if you could argue that nickel from Russia is better than cobalt from the Congo, it’s really an improvement on the margin, not more.

*The carbon emissions in the black smoke behind this cobalt mine aren’t verified…*

3) There is no reliable way to trace the full carbon footprint of an EV. Estimates vary widely and will continue to do so, and how could it be any different when in some instances you’re required to dig out 250 tons of earth in some of the poorest countries of the world, under conditions we don’t want to know about? No one has even tried to measure the climate impact of cobalt extractions in the Congo, and that’s probably a good thing. However, based on 50 academic studies, the estimated emissions to produce one single EV battery range from eight to 20 tonnes CO2. That’s before it’s been driven a single meter, and the higher end of that range is comparable to the emissions from a conventional car during its full lifetime.

4) In a world where electricity is scarce, EV’s for personal driving will not be prioritized. Here in Switzerland, the government’s energy emergency plan tells us not to use streaming services in times of crisis, or not to wash our laundry above 40 degrees. In the US, California has seen more power cuts this year than ever before. Under any of those scenarios, how likely is it that you’re allowed to charge your EV as much as you want? And when an EV charge costs almost as much as filling your tank as has been the case in the UK in some places this year, where’s the incentive?

5) Finally, and although nothing really points at it, perhaps a bit of common decency and morality will come in to the public discussion, pointing to the fact that children in the Congo work in mines under terrible conditions to produce the metals needed for feel good Westerners to drive Teslas. Or that over 90% of the solar panels on our roofs are produced by Uighurs in Chinese prison camps, their only crime being to be Uighur? If fast fashion isn’t the way to go for the clothes we buy, then EV’s most certainly aren’t for our driving!

Therefore, batteries in their current shape or form are not the way forward, and current electrification plans for our auto fleet simply won’t happen. That doesn’t mean that the combustion engine in its current form will be there forever, but that’s a story for another day. Until then, enjoy your conventional car – as long as you do, you’re doing the world a service!

Airy 1300 hp dreams!

On November 6, 2022November 6, 2022 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News2 Comments

It was certainly not a surprise that after our week in western Florida and the car reflections that came to me on the beach, New York would be vastly different. Still, I had to laugh to myself directly after landing, realizing I had just complimented our American friends on their civilized way of driving and was now about to die in a taxi from Newark airport, driven by a constantly honking maniac in a way only a maniac can drive a car. Let’s call it a return to reality… There’s no doubt Florida is more laid back than NY not only driving-wise but that said, it was great to see NYC back to its old, pre-Covid form!

We spent most of our days walking around Manhattan, and it was in the nowadays very pleasant Meatpacking District that we came upon the new Lucid showroom. We went in and talked to the very friendly Johan from Lucid, whom I guess I shouldn’t refer to as a sales guy since some strange American regulation makes a difference between shops and showrooms and prevents personnel in the latter from disclosing prices of cars shown. Having said that, Johan knew all there was to know about the Lucid Air, setting him apart from a number of other car showrooms and even shops around the world. We thus had a great discussion which brought me back to what I wrote last week about the greater freedom in EV design potentially replacing 700 hp V8 engines as the differentiator going forward. Lucid is not what I was thinking of when doing so, but I would claim the Air is a step in the right direction, and no doubt a very impressive one!

*The Air in the Meatpacking district showroom*

Lucid Motors was started in 2007 in California under the name Atieva as a 20-employee battery company. Today’s CEO Peter Rawlinson joined the company as CTO in 2013, having before that worked as lead engineer for the Model S at Tesla, and before that for Jaguar and Lotus but also for the legendary Porsche tuner Ruf. Rawlinson’s vision was to build the best EV in the world and thereby the first real luxury car in the segment. Before listing Lucid on Nasdaq through a SPAC deal in 2021, the company notably secured financing from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and its good capitalization no doubt has helped the company bridge the various supply delays it together with other car makers have had in the last year. As I write this, Johan told me they have delivered about 3.000 cars and are ramping up production. Being mostly US-focused so far, plans for Europe have been delayed, but Lucid will launch in a number of European countries in the coming months, including Germany (where there is already a showroom in Munich), Switzerland, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands..

So what is the Air? The slightly philosophical answer to that is that it’s the kind of car that can only come out of a company that hasn’t built cars along certain routines and principles for a number of decades, and also not from a company with a larger-than-life man at the top who by principle insists on fitting something like falcon doors to a car, even if it delays it by two years and then still doesn’t work when it reaches the market (I know I’m incredible subtle here so just to clarify, I’m referring to the Tesla Model X). The Air takes a new approach and shows a new way of thinking, not only in how it looks but also in the thinking that has gone into it. Rawlinson claims the only principle that steered the team in the development was to build the best EV in the world and having everyone committed to that goal, letting all the underlying pieces contributing to the single goal.

*It really looks like nothing else seen from the side…*

Size-wise the Air is comparable to a Mercedes E-class on the outside, but with an interior space on S-class level. It looks good but I would not call it beautiful. It is however definitely different, especially over the passenger space between the A- and C-pillars. The Cw-wind resistance factor at 0.21 is of course excellent, and the front booth / frunk space is huge at 280 litres, apparently the biggest in the industry. It may look like a hatchback but the rear booth is conventional, being very deep but also quite low, in a Citroën CX-kind of way. That’s a shame since it makes it difficult for those of us with needs for dog cages or other bulkier stuff, and at least from the outside, it looks like the decision not to go for a hatchback design was not because they couldn’t but rather because they didn’t want to.

The real revelation however comes when you step in to the car and are met with an interior that is far beyond anything in any other EV (very much including cars like the Merc EQS). Under the glass roof that reaches over the full passenger space, Lucid has built an interior mixing leather with textile and wood. It looks and feels very much like the premium car it aspires to be, and does so all the way through and not like for example the mentioned EQS where the lower half of the interior is mostly cheap plastic. It’s a clean, nice design, with all the different screens you have nicely integrated. The glass roof gives a very airy (…) feel, and the leg space in the rear is larger than in most limos, with as only drawback that you can’t fit your feet under the front seats. By the way, the rear seats are in a different color than the front, a neat little design trick I think we’ll see more of. I wasn’t able to test he functionality of all this but the screens interact nicely with each other, and there’s also quite a few functions that can be operated over physical buttons.

*The small screen left of the steering wheel reminds of the new Escalade*

The Air comes in different equipment versions and also with one or two engines, which is one part of the Lucid magic. At less than 100 kgs and fitting into an airplane carry-on suitcase, not only are these engines smaller and lighter than anything on the market, they are also more powerful. One engine produces 670 hp (meaning that the top version “Dream” has 1300 hp…) and is thereby more than 100 hp stronger than a Taycan engine which is twice as heavy. The battery pack is the second part of the “secret sauce”. Lucid uses cells from LG but develops the pack internally and has managed notably to reduce resistance and thereby power loss through heat. This gives the Air around a 500-mile range, and Johan was very relaxed about this actually being for real even in less-than-ideal conditions. If true, it means that Lucid would set a new range standard. Peter Rawlinson however prefers to talk about charging speed, believing it to be more important than range as it ultimately makes cars with less max range acceptable. And less range means lighter, cheaper, and hereby also sportier cars (remember Rawlinson used to work at Lotus?) Anyway, in Europe Lucid uses the same CCS-system as the German manufacturers and the car can in ideal conditions charge at up to 300 kW, meaning 300 miles in 20 minutes. Prices for dual engine cars will probably start around EUR 150′ which would make it more expensive than a Model S Plaid, but cheaper than a Mercedes EQS.

*Will two-tone interiors become the new trend?*

I really wish Lucid well, not only because they’ve put together a good car but also because it feels like the next step in the evolution of EV’s, and the first EV I’ve ever really wanted to put in my garage. Of course you need to drive a car before giving any kind of final verdict, but I’m kind of relaxed about it since on one hand tests confirm that it drives well, even very well compared to other EV’s (and that assessment came from none less than Evo!). And on the other, as discussed a bit last week, beyond pushing the pedal to the metal an reaching 100 km/h in 2-3 seconds a few times, which is no doubt a big thrill, neither Lucid nor any other EV will ever bring the excitement through the driving experience. They need to do so differently, and the Lucid air is a good step in that direction!

Populism is in, power is out!

On October 16, 2022October 16, 2022 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, Opinion2 Comments

A few weeks ago the Swedish mobility agency in a public announcement told EV drivers that it would be wise if they walked or biked for shorter distances, rather than use their shiny new EV. That’s of course the car they’ve been more or less coerced into buying and replace their old combustion one with, and it’s at the time of year when in Sweden, neither a walk or a bike run is necessarily what you’re dreaming of. This is only one of many small outcomes of the energy crisis Europe is currently battling, or put differently, the crisis where European tax payers pick up the bill for decades of political energy policy mismanagement. This week’s post will be more about what goes into the tank than the car itself – but as we all know, no fuel no fun… Regular programming will resume next week.

*It’s a lovely season for a walk in Sweden…*

Russia’s barbaric onslaught on Ukraine which will hopefully by some divine justice have Putin and his closest gangsters burn in a warm place for very long, is a complete tragedy. We may complain about energy security and fuel prices, but let’s never forget that the Ukrainians are paying a far heavier price, currently without an end in sight. The Ukraine war has however also provided populist politicians the opportunity to put the blame for their own failures on the war and Putin. EU representatives in Brussels like to talk about how Putin has weaponized energy. The exiting Swedish PM speaks about “Putin prices” when defending any kind of spiraling energy prices, notably at the petrol station, although half the price is tax. And so on. Clearly the war has had devastating effects on Europe’s energy supply, but it’s only had so because of Europe’s careless and self-imposed reliance on Russian energy.

Going into the war, 40% of Germany’s natural gas came from Russia. Gas makes up around 25% of Germany’s total energy mix but far more in the all-important industrial mix, so putting it bluntly, Europe’s largest economy put the energy supply of its industry and thereby the security of the whole country in the hands of Putin the dictator. And by the time the now blown-up NordStream II pipeline was built in the second half of the 2010’s, Putin had already showed what he was made of by invading not only Crimea in 2014, but before that also by engaging in wars with Georgia and in Chechnya – twice. So it was, or at least should have been, in complete knowledge of the facts that then German chancellor Merkel took the decision to hand the keys to the German industrial kingdom to Vladimir Putin, with many other European countries doing more or less the same. You really can’t make it up.

*Russian-speaking ex-chancellor Merkel with her pal Putin.*

To get to the root of the problem we do however need to go back to 2011 when immediately following the tsunami-caused Fukushima disaster, Merkel decided to close down Germany’s nuclear plants. Fukushima is of course on the other side of the world seen from Germany and the accident had no relevance whatsoever to Germany’s nuclear security, given the only coast Germany has is to the North Sea which isn’t very prone to tsunamis, and in addition not where Germany’s nuclear plants are located. But hey, who cares about energy security when there is a chance to earn political points with the growing Green movement? Here in Switzerland our local politicians jumped on the train before it had even stopped at the station and decided to close down our local plants. Of course we continue to import nuclear power from neighboring France and could never have closed down our own plants without those imports, but that’s something we don’t really like to talk about.

Nuclear is also where Europe and the US meet in our respective crises, with US policy in the last decade being just as set on closing down nuclear as Europe. The problem is of course that in parallel both sides of the pond also wanted to close down fossil fuels, in other words leaving us with no weather independent source of base power. In the US this has translated to more black-outs last year than at any point in history, and fuel prices in California are now getting close to USD 7 per gallon, which still sounds like a steal seen from Europe but is a historical high from a US perspective. President Biden has consistently acted against any expanded production of both oil and natural gas, at the same time as depleting the strategic oil reserve and traveling to Saudi Arabia, trying to get the true democrats down there to increase production. In essence, the message to US oil companies is “guys, we really don’t like you and we’ll close down all your business in a few years, but until then, could you please invest a few billion and increase production?”.

Enough of the ranting, but the above needs to be said to put the current situation into context. For some strange reason though it usually isn’t, and I’m pretty convinced things will not get better unless those responsible are willing to stand up for mistakes made in past. Whether in the US or in Europe, we’re not in an energy crisis primarily because of Putin’s war in Ukraine or because the Saudis won’t increase production – we’re here because of naive, uninformed and populistic political policies that we as taxpayers are now paying for at the pump, by not using the EV that it was so important we buy, or by freezing in our homes.

The bad news is of course that this will not end anytime soon, but it’s at least good to see that a bit like a drunk waking up on the side of the road, European countries including Germany are now really scrambling for solutions and doing all they can to remedy the situation. Notably in terms of gas supply things are changing quickly, with a heavily reduced dependance on Russia that will go towards nil in 2023. That’s all great, but it only solves part of the problem. Through policies like the ones described above, most countries at present quite simply don’t have any reserve capacity for any type of energy. Building nuclear isn’t done in a couple of months, neither are necessary LNG terminals or for that matter little-discussed but very essential grid investments for renewables that are desperately lacking across Europe, and for which there risks not being any money left in the new recessionary environment we find ourselves in, coupled with increased defense budgets.

*This is an LNG terminal in Japan. Doesn’t look like something you build in a couple of weeks…*

What happens now is therefore a return to the old power sources we thought were closed down forever. Coal imports to Europe have increased by more than 30% in 2022 compared to previous years. In Poland natural forests are now being chopped for energy and people are burning garbage. In Sweden, the oil-fired power plants are back in action and in Denmark, neighbors steal each others’ wood pellets. Climate policy is out the window and we’d better all wish for a very sunny, windy and mild winter across both Europe and the US, which is not really what winter typically looks like. Otherwise, more or less power cuts could be on many countries’ agendas for the coming months. And even in the US, we can safely assume that oil production will increase when people really start freezing.

If electricity really is rationed, you can be pretty sure that EV charging will not go unaffected. The Swedish mobility agency may have been first, but a similar message will no doubt go out in other countries as well. EV charging will also continue to increase in price. How much depends on where you live and where you charge, but as a scary example there are charging stations in the UK where a 300 km charge now costs around £50, which is more expensive than fuel would be for a mid-sized car. And that’s assuming you find a station that works, which seems to be quite rare over there… If you need your car for your daily life and if you’re dependent on the public grid for charging, buying an EV right now is probably not the best idea.

Defeating Putin in Ukraine is of course more important than prices at the pump and would most probably help reduce the price of oil and gas, and thereby inflation. It’s interesting how politicians of all colors are now changing their tune with regards to nuclear and have a very hard time remembering where they stood on the issue until very recently. I had to rub my eyes hard this week when the climate activist Greta Thunberg joined the crowd, talking about Germany’s mistake in closing down its nuclear plants. Of course Greta as recently as 2019 was publicly against nuclear. The more things change they also stay the same though, because only two days later, ex-chancellor Merkel in only the second big interview since she left office said she doesn’t regret anything.

This may all be entertaining but it’s against a serious background where until there is at least more clarity on how our power supply and energy mix will look going forward, the safest option is no doubt to keep your combustion car, because whatever you pay at the pump, it’s still cheaper than buying an EV (and charging it). As we’ve looked at previously you won’t save the climate anyway by driving electric, and you may indeed want to decide yourself when to drive your car and when to bike or take a walk.

Serious EV power from Croatia!

On August 21, 2022August 21, 2022 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, NewsLeave a comment

I’m sure most, if not all readers of this blog have a few automotive legends of their own. Henry Ford is no doubt part of most people’s list as the man who gave us the first mass-produced automobile. I would of course also cite some of my Italian car legends that you’ve seen featured on this blog, and no doubt include Christian von Koenigsegg as well, the Swede who built the world’s fastest car from scratch on the countryside in Sweden. These days however, at least for the general public, Elon Musk is probably the biggest of them all. You can debate how much of a car company Tesla is (or for that matter how sane Elon is), but you can’t debate the success Tesla cars have had (and as shown last week, this goes for the resale values as well!).

What’s fascinating with Elon next to the fact that in addition to cars, he also builds rockets that he lands back on earth after the flight, is that just like Koenigsegg, he started from a piece of paper (albeit with lots of money in his pocket). He did so in the biggest car market in the world, but of course he himself is South-African. Let’s just say that the odds of success weren’t necessarily on his side, and they were even less so for Koenigsegg, as also highlighted in my piece last year. So in that case, how would you rate the odds of a 20-year old Bosnian setting out to build the fastest EV supercar in the world in neighboring Croatia? Yeah, right. You’d be wrong though, because his name is Mate Rimac and he’s quickly developing to becoming something like the next Elon. This week, we’ll look closer at him and the car brand carrying his name!

*Rimac’s electric BMW – the fastest EV in the world at the time!*

Mate Rimac is only 34 years old, but he’s already accomplished more than most do in a lifetime. Having grown up in Germany and Croatia, he participated in various innovation contests at a young age and in 2006, after having exploded the engine of his BMW E30, decided to transform it to an electrical car. So he did and not only that, he made it the fastest EV in the world at the time, which got him quite a lot of press coverage that would turn out to be very useful a few years later. Mate also competed with the car against traditional combustion engines and usually won, and it was sometime around here that he became convinced of the potential of EV’s and decided to set up a company and build better cars than Tesla. At the same time he invented a few other things as well, such as a rear-view mirror without blind spot and the iGlove, aimed at replacing the computer mouse and keyboard. It didn’t, but there’s little doubt Mate had lots of ideas in his head and by the looks of it, still does.

At first, Rimac’s company focused on conversion of traditional cars to electric drivetrains. That business developed nicely and became known as Rimac Automobili in 2009, when Mate was 21. It took him another two years to get a few employees at the company’s HQ in Croatia, and at this time he also met a GM designer called Adriano Mudri. The two men got along and started discussing building an EV supercar together. Thanks to the previous garnered publicity, they also got an invitation to the royal family of the United Arab Emirates who would become the financier of Rimac’s first prototype called Concept One, unveiled at the Frankfurt Auto Show in 2011. Eight Concept Ones were built in total and as far as I know seven are still around, the eighth having been crashed in quite spectacular fashion by Richard Hammond of (the original) Top Gear. That’s without doubt the most expensive car Hammond has ever crashed…

Next to the car however, Rimac continued to work with other brands on modifications and parts related to electrification. These include Porsche, Aston Martin, BMW and Koenigsegg, and in 2018 VW/Porsche also bought a 10% stake in Rimac. Last year, it was then confirmed that the partnership has been extended to a new company called Bugatti Rimac where Rimac owns 55% and will provide electrification to the coming hybrid Bugattis. Porsche is also said to have invested further in the company in its latest financing round. As if that wasn’t enough, Rimac also produces the battery systems for the Aston Martin Valkyrie and the Koenigsegg Regera.

*The Nevera – a mix of other sports cars and old uniform neckties!*

With a top speed of 220 mph (roughly 350 km/h) the Concept One was no doubt extreme, even for an EV, especially 10 years ago. This was however only the hors d’oeuvre for what was to come. The even faster Concept S would follow in 2016 as more of a track car, before the Nevera was unveiled in 2018 and is being delivered to customers form this year. With 150 cars being built for a price of EUR 2m these customers are to be considered very lucky, as this 1914 hp monster sets a new standard even for EV’s. With a top speed of over 400 km/h and a 0-100 time of 1.85 seconds, it also reaches 300 km/h in nine seconds, faster than an F1 car and something that will most probably have you searching for your eye balls at the back of your head, should you try it.

Of course speed isn’t enough though, and the Nevera (which by the way is the name of a Mediterranean storm – what is it with auto makers and winds??) certainly looks the part. It’s a beautiful car with hints of the new Corvette at the front and a McLaren of your choice in the back. Air vents along the sides have the same shape as the necktie of Croatian soldiers fighting for Napoleon (you’d be forgiven for not noticing that yourself…). Of course almost every panel is carbon fibre, it uses butterfly doors and a break spoiler in the back, deploying at a predetermined speed. Rimac confesses he’s programmed that speed to be low enough for the spoiler to deploy frequently, as clients find it cool….

*Quite a plush interior given the car’s power, more of a GT than a track car*

The Nevera has four electrical engines, one per wheel, which are thus operated and adjusted individually, further contributing to great handling. The interior is more plush than you would expect and definitely more of a GT car than a track car. That doesn’t mean it drives badly though: the first of the 150 Neveras will be delivered to ex-F1 world champion Nico Rosberg who is enthusiastic about not only the power but also how the car handles. In terms of colors you can of course have whatever you want – Mate himself has chosen raw carbon fibre for his own Nevera, a bit of a debatable choice but who are we to argue…

We’ll see where Rimac goes from here, but both the cars and the prestigious collaborations have put him on a fast track for even greater things going forward. From interviews and videos he also seems like a genuinely good guy, which is always nice to see. Notably all Rimac employees, from the cleaning stuff and up, have a share in the company. Of course, unless I have more prominent readers than I know, neither you nor I will probably have the pleasure of driving a Nevera or see for ourselves how nice Mate Rimac is. There is however another way to experience the Rimac magic, namely by buying an electrical MTB from his other company Greyp Bikes, founded in 2015. That will save you a couple of million, be better for your health and give you the first MTB that can communicate with all other Greyp MTB’s around the world, and also film what happens behind you when you ride. If that’s not an irresistible offer, I don’t know what is!

EV’s will never rule the world

On June 12, 2022June 12, 2022 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, Opinion6 Comments

A few months ago, as spring was still losing the fight against the last efforts of winter, I attended a financial conference close to Zurich. That’s one of those events where asset managers meet up with investors to tell them why they are the best option to invest with, in whatever theme they feel is of most interest at the time. Not too long ago, these events still had some diversity to them, as you had the opportunity to speak to a great variety of managers on different strategies. Those days are gone. Today, everything, and I really mean everything, is around ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) and impact. In a way that’s great – I’m absolutely convinced of companies needing to behave like good citizens, both towards their employees and the environment (which is what ESG is about), and if they can report some concrete metrics on that good behaviour (which impact is about), then all the better. What I don’t like is when the discussion gets stupid, because when it does, it also gets counter-productive. In this case, as you probably guessed already, it was about EV’s.

*Is everything really green in EV land? Eeh… no.*

One of the sessions I chose to attend was with a portfolio manager (PM) who started by presenting his team with their name, role and how they commuted to work. The options were bike, public transport or EV, and when someone asked about conventional cars, she was told that wasn’t allowed on the team. The PM thereafter spent whatever was left of his 20 minutes to talk in extremely broad, non-committing terms about how we were all going to die very soon unless we all invested through him in cool companies such as Tesla and solar panel manufacturers, rather than the terrible old dinosaur industrial companies, to which he gladly also counted traditional car manufacturers who now build EV’s – go figure. To conclude, he then looked at his client relations guy standing next to him and explained how he had convinced him to buy a Tesla, and how happy he was by now. Apparently the colleague wasn’t trusted with saying this himself.

In the context of what was supposed to be a serious, institutional investor conference, this was all a bit too much for me so I put up my hand, congratulated the client relations guy on his new car and said I hope firstly he didn’t have a car before, since replacing it with an EV in most cases and for a very long time will be detrimental to the environment and not positive from a total emission perspective, and secondly that I hope he drives a lot, since he’ll need around 100.000 km’s for his Model S to be “net positive” in total CO2 emissions compared to a conventional car. I added that I’d be interested in knowing where the solar panels of the mentioned company were produced. All this made the PM quite excited, and in a rather arrogant way (how dare you question the wisdom of EV’s??) told me that the 100.000 km number was absolutely not correct and based on “biased research by the petroleum industry”. He never gave a number himself. With regards to solar panels, he had to admit that a large part were still produced in China, but “not in the problematic parts”. Stupid me – I wasn’t aware there were parts in China which are not a Communist dictatorship…

It’s been a year and a half since I published one of my most read posts on EV’s and how they won’t save the climate (catch it here if you missed it). One of the main points in that post was on the “CO2 deficit” of EV’s, i.e. the very large amounts of CO2-emitting energy that goes into their battery production. This fact was validated by a study I learnt of recently, commissioned by VW in 2019 and done by the Austrian Joanneum Research Institute together with the German automobile club ADAC and the excellent German Economics Professor Hans-Werner Sinn.

*Given the above, it’s safe to say that almost no EV’s make sense from a CO2 emission perspective.*

With apologies for the bad quality (coming from the fact that I took a picture of the screen during a presentation by Prof. Sinn), it’s pretty easy to see why VW didn’t want a lot of publicity around the study’s results and instead chose to bury it in a basement somewhere before it was leaked to the public. You see, the results go against the complete electrification VW and all other car makers in the world are currently embarked on. The diagram is based on the total CO2 emissions of a car, so for an EV including the production of batteries, and the two lines depict on one hand an electric Golf and on the other the same car with a diesel engine. As the graph makes painfully clear, for a country with an electricity mix comparable to Germany and Austria (and there’s quite a few of those), the 100.000 km number the PM claimed was exaggerated is actually quite the opposite when compared to an economical diesel engine. If you go by the yellow vertical line that shows the average lifetime of a car in Germany, the EV simply never catches up.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has laid bare especially Europe’s dependency on Russian energy and is now talked about as something that will accelerate the transition to renewables, which on a global basis still make up less than 2% of the energy mix. This reasoning is often accompanied by statements of how solar panels and wind mills will continue to get cheaper according to a version of Moore’s law (which refers to how the number of transistors doubles every two years whilst prices of computers are cut in half). This is quite simply wrong.

Firstly, the material cost of notably metals that go into the production of all renewables has a worth that will always prevent the cost from going below a certain level. Most of those metals have price-wise been at a historical bottom during the last ten years or so, until very recently. If you combine that with a cost of financing that with interest rates at zero has been as low as it can get but is now moving up, everything points to renewables getting more expensive going forward, not the other way around. To which should then be added further issues such as notably the extraction of required metals from great countries like Russia, China and the Congo, the many tons of cement needed for the basements of wind mills and so on. That’s not good news for anyone, especially since the ESG-movement has been very good at preventing any form of investment in oil, gas, and even nuclear, a non-polluting and non-weather dependent form of energy. That’s obviously where it gets stupid.

*Coal is still the world’s largest energy source, and no country has more coal mines (and workers) than China*

Some countries have a better energy mix than Germany and Austria and with cleaner energy sources, the EV equation improves. There are also initiatives to recycle battery metals and even replace especially cobalt, and there’s obviously research into steady-state batteries and so on. That’s all great, but it won’t be here tomorrow or even in a few years, and the issue of scale is still huge. Quite simply, we are very far away from having the battery or other storage capacity required for an energy system based on renewables, and such a system would also by definition assume massive over-investment, such as to produce enough energy to store when the wind blows and the sun shines. I don’t know about you, but the more I look at wind and solar power, the more I’m convinced that this is not what our future will be built on. I am however as convinced that we will manage to solve the energy equation such as to reduce emissions, quite simply because human creativity is unbeatable at solving challenges, and emissions is a challenge we need to respond to. But we need to be smart about it.

*Stock performance YTD per 9 July. It was more fun investing in EV’s last year…* *Volvo Cars is included as owner of Polestar.*

We all suffer at the pump these days and as previously said, things won’t get better anytime soon (rather the contrary if you consider that China has basically been in lock down, i.e. not consuming a lot of anything, in the last months, but is now opening up). I fully understand if you choose to buy an EV, especially if you can produce your own energy through solar panels (preferrably not from China) or otherwise, but please don’t tell your friends how you are helping save the environment by doing so, because in most aspects, you’re not. For those without their own electricity production, unfortunately it can be expected that electricity prices move up as well. It seems the market is starting to realize that as well, as illustrated by the stock price performance of EV’s this year, as illustrated above. I haven’t checked on the recent performance of the funds managed by the PM I met at that conference but looking at the table, I think I have a pretty good idea!

What’s new in the EV world?

On January 23, 2022January 23, 2022 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, NewsLeave a comment

Although EV’s are not the focus of this blog, there’s quite a bit happening on the EV front so that I feel it’s worth giving you a small round-up of what I believe to be the most important recent developments. The first thing to point out is obviously that the long awaited jump in EV sales is now really happening. The below graphic gives a nice illustration of where sales are surging (China, Europe and the US in order of importance) and where not (somewhat surprisingly Japan, where EV’s make up less than 5% of all EV sales worldwide. Japan has a lot of hybrids however). Putting these numbers in context shows that EV’s hereby represented 12% of all cars sold in China, approximately 11% in Europe (including PHEV) and 3% in the US. So the growth is clearly there and accelerating, but we’re still not at the point where EV’s are close to taking over.

Tesla claims the two top spots in the US with its models 3 and Y, and the Model 3 is the best selling EV in Europe as well, ahead of the VW ID3, the Renault Zoe and the VW ID4. In China the top seller is a car I’m sure you’re all familiar with – the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV. No? The Wuling is a Chinese mini electric car, the size that actually makes most sense for an EV. It’s ahead of, yep, the Tesla Model 3 and Y. It’s worth noting that not only do the two Teslas claim the top spots in most markets, they are also by far the most expensive of the EV top sellers, making their numbers even more impressive. It’s also interesting that even in the US, the two other models S and X don’t see many buyers anymore.

*The leading Chinese EV is rather small and not very aerodynamic*

So much for existing sales, but much more interesting is looking at the new market entrants, and there’s quite a few of those. I’ll focus here on the ones I for different reasons believe are the most important: Mercedes with the EQS and other EV models now being rolled out as representative of the the in my view leading traditional brand, Lucid Motors as the most exciting new EV brand, and to round it off, why not a couple of electric pick-ups?

Mercedes-Benz landed a real PR punch a few weeks ago when it became the first car maker to receive the approval for level three self-driving in Germany. This is a major snub to Tesla but certainly not a coincidence. MB’s Swedish CEO Ola Källenius is not only using social media to the fullest, he’s also repositioning MB as a car maker that will exclusively be building EV’s by 2030. The EQS that came out a few months ago is the flagship in this regard, with the EQE (E-class) and other models now following. I’ve had the opportunity to study the EQS inside and out several times although I haven’t driven it yet, and it’s very surprising to me hearing how various commentators put it on par with the “normal” S-class. Let’s be clear, and take my word for it: if you forget the giant screens and look at other interior materials and perceived quality, the EQS is nowhere near an S-class. At the same time it’s however far ahead of Tesla and other EV’s, but so it should, given it’s also quite a bit more expensive at around EUR 200′ fully equipped. You get a pretty fully equipped, “normal” S-class for that kind of money…

*Keep your eyes on the screens – what is below is less fun…*

Lucid Motors is the new star on the EV sky and perhaps one that can challenge Mercedes on the luxury EV throne. Lucid’s CEO Peter Rawlinson was previously part of the senior management at Tesla, and the Lucid Air of which a few thousand have been delivered by now is an impressive large sedan that scores high both in quality, space and materials (although given what I mention on the EQS above, I’d like to be the judge of that first). The drive train is no less impressive with up to 1111hp in the top model Air Dream Edition, and a range of around 800 km (in ideal conditions). Interestingly the battery pack operates at 900V which complemented by its size helps speed up charging, something Lucid is happy to talk about. The company comes from California, the cars are built in Arizona and plans are to open up in Europe soon. There’s obviously always a risk with new brands, but Lucid has a lot going for it (including around USD 1bn of Saudi money).

*The Lucid is a large car, however not a hatchback as you may think.*

We will not see many of the other two EV’s I’ve chosen to mention here in Europe, but the US readers will have the opprtunity to enjoy them. They are both pick-ups, the first being the Hummer EV, easily recognized as a Hummer, meaning it still looks cool and is now fully electric. The roof can be removed in four different parts, and the Hummer also has a lot of other gadgets of the kind that seem to appeal to EV buyers. It’s also the only EV (actually, any car) in the market that can do the crab walk, meaning it can move forward diagonally. I have no clue what the practical side of that is, but I’m sure it’s fun. The second is less known until now, it’s also a US pick-up from a new brand called Rivian. The company has been around for ten years but it’s not until last year they showed their first car, the fully-electric R1T. It’s an interesting concept with quite a few interesting features which are new to the EV world, and it comes at an interesting price point around USD 75′ in the US.

*The Hummer EV certainly looks the part…*

Finally, let me bring you some stories of what life with an EV is like during the winter months in Europe. This is not some I’ve spent hours googling about, rather things I’ve picked up from friends or read about. It’s also not out of a wish to be mean to the EV collective, but it seems important to me that if the plan to have the whole world drive these, we need to know what’s going on out there – even in the European winter.

A colleague of mine set out from northern Europe to the French Alps in his Model S for a week’s skiing with the family. With around 1.000 km to drive, they needed to charge three times on the way there, as the real range in the winter months is only 250-300 kms. When they picked up the car from the (unheated) parking a week later, the battery was almost empty as it had lost a few km range every day by just being parked when it was cold outside. They just about made it to the next charging station.
A friend of mine put his Model X on support charging in northern Sweden as you’re supposed to, however the smaller, second battery that powers notably the screens froze, making the car unusable. I don’t know whether this was his fault or not but as a result the car had to be transported back to Stockholm on a tow truck, over 500 km away, since there was no garage in upper Sweden that could assist.

*Not ideal when you’re 500 km away from the nearest garage…*

A lady in Germany wanted to pick up her new electric VW herself at the factory in Wolfsburg to save the EUR 700 delivery costs VW required for sending it to Munich where she lives. That was a bad idea. The 600 km back home took her more than 12 hours with three charging stops. She was also freezing cold during the whole trip since the car apparently warned her from turning on the heating, as it would cost too much energy. VW told her she should have planned her charging stops better – but perhaps VW should build a car that would save her the work, as Tesla has been doing now for close to 10 years?

Let’s be clear on a couple of points. EV’s are an interesting alternative with a more efficient engine than a classical combustion engine – under certain conditions. In cold temperatures they are very far from the range claims being made, and also run into various other issues. Range anxiety during the winter months is thus very much still an issue. Also, some of the above problems could probably have been avoided by more informed buyers and owners, but as EV’s as rolled out in large numbers, we can certainly not demand of all drivers to be EV experts. Issues such as the above need to be solved by manufacturers, as spending 12 hours in an unheated car in the middle of winter shouldn’t be the future thrill of driving!

Can E-fuels save traditional mobility?

On May 30, 2021May 30, 2021 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, Opinion2 Comments

Readers of this blog know of my scepticism towards EV’s, not as a concept but as a solution to climate-related issues. I wrote about this in a recent post you can find here, so I won’t repeat myself. To be fair, things are moving in the right direction at least with regards to some of the issues raised, as I also highlighted in my recent post about Mercedes’s new EQS (see here). It does however remain the case that even if EV manufacturers become climate-neutral in their production, as long as the country they produce in is not 100% based on green energy, what they achieve is basically nothing put pushing the dirty energy consumption on to the next guy.

*Even the steel is said to be climate neutral in a few years in the production of the EQS and other MB EV’s*

There is however another BIG issue around EV’s that no one seems really keen to talk about, namely what on earth we’re supposed to do with the millions of fully functional cars we currently have on our streets, if the plan is to roll out EV’s for all? Don’t laugh, the question risks becoming very real as various European governments start fixing end dates for the sale of new combustion engines. A logical next step is then to start discussing bans on existing cars. But what is the plan for millions of existing and fully functional cars, and even more, what is the carbon footprint of destroying millions of existing cars and building new EV’s? Funnily, this is an aspect that is completely absent from the discussion.

I’m of an optimistic nature so I’d like to think that realism will prevail in the end – a realism that for me needs to be based on a future for traditional mobility – especially (and I’m finally getting to the topic of this week’s post), since traditional mobility doesn’t necessarily mean traditional fuels going forward. The development of so called e-fuels is progressing rapidly, and this week we’ll look at whether they are the solution that will allow for a more reasonable solution to the issue of traditional, personal mobility.

*A new 12-cylinder will never be built, but it would be nice if we could still save the old ones!*

Electrofuels, also called e-fuels or synthetic fuels, are produced exclusively from renewable energy. Without going into the technical details, in the case of car fuel it means producing hydrogen from clean energy, to which CO2, extracted from other sources, is added. The result is emission-free hydrocarbon, and the resulting synthetic fuels are no technically different to conventional fuels. They can thus power the same cars without modifications and also use the existing fueling infrastructure. A further big advantage is that e-fuels don’t compete with food production, a big problem for example with ethanol production that isn’t very compatible with the world’s need to feed another 3bn people until 2050, using less resources. Disadvantages? Unfortunately, there are a few, and they’re rather big.

Firstly, e-fuels don’t solve the issue of clean energy going to its use as long as the full economy doesn’t use clean energy, as you’re basically just pushing the emission onto someone else. As we’ll see below the clean energy used for e-fuels is produced very far away and thus not cannibalizing on anything else, but this is not a viable, long-term concep. Secondly, e-fuels offer far less efficiency than electricity, as long as electricity production is local. This is however an important point given that, as noted, most countries are still not 100% green in their energy production. So either you push the emission problem onto the next user as noted above, or, and this is not unrealistic, we’ll start importing for example solar energy from a sunny place such as the Middle East. If that becomes the case, then hydrogen all of a sudden becomes very competitive in terms of efficiency as it can be transported much more easily. Thirdly and lastly, as you will have guessed, the production process for e-fuels is far from cheap, and it will still take time and probably also some further technological innovations to solve both the cost and thereby also the required scale issue.

*Wind turbines of Project Haru Oni off Chile’s coast*

A number of automakers are looking into e-fuels as an alternative or complement to EV’s, none more than Porsche which currently runs a project called Haru Oni off the coast of Chile (where it’s very windy). They do so together with notably Siemens, and the logic for Porsche is that because of the points above and others, conventional electricity alone will not be enough to move to a clean car fleet fast enough, in view of other – rising – electricity needs in the world. The project is still in its early days but by removing CO2 out of the air through wind power and combining it with hydrogen, it aims to produced 130.000 litres of fuel next year, and 550 million litres in 2026. As a reference, around 23bn litres of fuel were consumed in Germany last year so although a lot, it would take many more such installations to get anywhere near the volume required to make this a viable alternative on a larger scale. The cost so far remains a mystery, but it’s clear that it’s nowhere near being a reasonable consumer alternative at this stage.

So at least for now, it remains at best unclear whether e-fuels will give a future to combustion engines. It’s however good to see that some thinking around fuel alternatives is going on and who knows, as so often before, maybe there will be other innovations along the way that allow for even better solutions in the end. It would however be high time for some realism to enter the discussion around EV’s and our future mobility. It would also be desirable with some political willingness to engage in discussions on where the electricity is supposed to come from in the emission-free world, when many countries in parallel wish to phase out nuclear? This can’t possibly be something only a few engineers at Porsche have thought about? And finally, perhaps someone can tell us what the plan is for the many millions of fully-functioning cars in the world? Reality is slightly more complex than what the current debate would have you believe and the sooner we’re mature enough to engage in a difficult but highly necessary discssion on it, the better.

The EV market takes off for real

On April 25, 2021May 1, 2021 By ChristofferIn Electrical vehicles, News, Opinion1 Comment

Ten days ago, in a flashy, high-tech online show that you can watch here if you missed it, Mercedes-Benz presented the new EQS, the fully electric version of the S-class. I would claim that rather than just another car launch, the EQS is a real game-changer in the EV market, and likewise the last confirmation needed that the big guys are now entering this segment for real. Interestingly, it’s also a (positive!) game changer with regards to environmental factors and sustainability. This week we’ll take a look at the new EQS, which even without considering the drive train looks to be one hell of a car, and talk a bit more about why it’s important and how it will influence the market going forward. If your love for traditional cylinders (to which we’ll return next week) runs so deep that it prevents you from reading any further, in summary I think you can say that whereas the planned Super League in European football came to a very sudden death this week, there will be nothing stopping the EV Super League from taking off in 2021!

Starting with the EQS, In one simple sentence it can of course be described as an electric S-class, whis is perhaps what many people will do – but that would mean missing the whole point. Because by bringing an S-class to the EV market, Mercedes is also bringing a whole new level of luxury and car quality, where until now the only luxury has been Tesla’s giant infotainment screen.

*The new EQS – notice the very long wheelbase*

Starting from the bottom (literally), the EQS is built on Mercedes’s first EV-specific platform. So far EV’s not only from the Stuttgart brand but also from other large manufacturers have been built on traditional platforms, and this makes a big difference as one specifically developed for EV’s can take into account the absence of an engine and battery space far better. The new platform can also be adapted to different car sizes, something Mercedes intends to do as it rolls out an electric version of all cars in its current line-up over the coming years, some of them already in 2021. To those who know Tesla this is obviously not new, however what happens above the platform, inside the car, definitely is.

The EQS doesn’t look like an S-class and is actually a hatchback (without a frunk, as that space is taken up by various air-cleaning filters). At over 5.20 metres it’s a big car, with lots of interior space, and luggage space of around 650 litres (in addition to which you can fold the rear seats). If the design can be debated, what cannot is the fact that it’s the most aerodynamic car currently in production, with a Cw/Cd-value of 0.20. Also not open to debate is not only the quality, but also the innovativeness of the interior space, at or beyond S-class level. The most spectacular parts are probably the (optional) self-opening-and-closing doors and the gigantic so called hyperscreen (actually consisting of three screens) that extends over the whole dashboard and enables the passenger to for example watch Youtube whilst the driver has access to the navigation. Noteworthy is also that front and rear passengers are independent both in infotainment and speech commands, and chan thus address the car by “Hey Mercedes” independently of each other. The EQS also sets new standards in driver profiles and indiviualization, and the list goes on, and on, and on. Two interior design lines are planned, a more elegant and a more sporty one, and if the hyperscreen for some reason isn’t your thing, you can opt for the mid-mounted “iPad” of the new, “normal” S-class instead – a simple example of how a large car manufacturer can cross-fertilize various items between product lines.

*The hyperscreen in the elegant layout version*

The EQS is set to come to dealers this summer and will initially be available with 333 or 524 hp as rear- and all-wheel drive. An AMG version is set to follow later. The range will be up to 770 km WLTP, which should translate to something like 600-650 km in real life under pretty ideal conditions. This is a really important point, as no one has so far been able to compete with Tesla’s superior range – until now. Prices aren’t known, German media expect them to start around EUR 110.000 (with as always an almost unlimited upside…), which means pretty much on par or actually even slightly below the regular S-class. Mercedes have stated that they will earn less by car produced than for conventional cars, which in turn means they believe strongly in the growth of the EV segment. If pricing at this level is confirmed it goes against what has been the case so far, where EV-versions from traditional brands such as the Audi E-tron or the MB EQC tend to come at a premium to diesel or petrol versions.

*The hatchback rear with the mandatory light bar*

As stated previously on this blog, I don’t subscribe to the view that the big car companies have missed the EV train, quite simply as it hasn’t left the station yet. Although the amount of media attention it gets would make you believe it’s already a significant percentage of new car sales, the global EV market is still around only 2%, however with growth really starting to take off in selected markets in Europe, as well as in California and other places. Also, if you except small EV’s with a 150 km range, the market has basically been owned Tesla until now, as we know a three-model car company with only one of them, the Model 3, selling outside of the US, and with the exception of improved range and software, no significant facelifts or updates since the models were launched. I’m sure most large car brands have watched the market carefully whilst preparing in the background for the day growth takes off, and nowhere more so than in Germany. From that perspective, Mercedes’s timing looks pretty impeccable to me. The VW group is about to introduce its new EV platform with notably 20 electric Audi models rolled out over the coming five years, and others will follow close behind. Given the expertise all of these have in building not only cars, but also real luxury cars, the fundamentals of the market are probably about to change, which in turn will make life hard for Tesla, especially in Europe.

Last but not least, let me come back on the sustainability of EV’s that I was very critical of in my post back in January (see here), and that indeed still deserves to be looked at critically, notably in terms of the “CO2 cost” of battery production. If you saw the introduction of the EQS, you may have noted Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius saying that the battery train of the EQS will be produced in Germany in a carbon-neutral way. This sounded a bit too good to be true, so I was in touch with Mercedes’s customer relations this week to have it confirmed, and very impressively, they came back to me in 24 hours. Not only did they confirm that from the first car built, the EQS’s battery pack will be produced exclusively with fossil-free, CO2-neutral energy. They also said that every Mercedes factory in the world will be carbon-neutral by 2022, with some of those in Germany already being so. This is obviously very good as it resolves one of the main issues around EV’s, and will hopefully influence both the public and competitors..

*The car can still charge quicker than most stations, but Ionity has really taken off!*

EV’s have a lot going for them, and resolving some of the issues with the battery production adds to the positive list. I believe that what Mercedes now starts with the EQS will be a game-changer for the direction of the EV market, as others can be expected to follow close on their heels. In parallel, the European Ionity charging network is growing quickly, already providing a far better coverage than could be expected a few months ago. So whereas I still don’t think you should take your 10-year old car to the car scrap, it definitely looks like the future is electric, and that it may happen quick than I would have thought only a few months ago. Thus, if I were in the market for a new S-class, I would probably think twice about which one to get. In a couple of years, maybe that won’t even be the main question for the typical S-class buyer, but rather if an S-class can really be a hatchback…

The Thrill of Driving

Category: Electrical vehicles