F1 season 2024 – the calm before the storm?

If you read this on the Sunday of publication, it means the F1 season 2024 is only one week away with the engines revving up for the first time on March 2 in Bahrain. 24 races are planned this year, making it the longest season ever if they all take place. The season will end not far from where it starts, in Abu Dhabi, in early December, and as I finish this post, the last day of official testing is already underway!

In a way, the 2024 season is shaping up to be a repeat of 2023. No one really doubts that Max Verstappen will add another world champion title to his and Red Bull’s belt, at least not yet, all drivers are in the same seat as last year, and all teams are the same, except in name. And yet, there have been two pieces of news before the season kicks off that have made the headlines: the first was Günther Steiner being fired as team head of Haas, and the second that Lewis Hamilton is leaving Mercedes for Ferrari at the end of the season.

The news were certainly unexpected!

To start with the Lewis, this is of course both surprising and exciting. Surprising since Hamilton has been part of Mercedes since what feels like forever and is in reality 11 years, a very long time in F1. He’s of course one of the most successful drivers of all time, but we also know of the difficulties Mercedes have seen in the last seasons, probably making a change feel like a good option, both for Lewis and the team.

I think we all look forward to seeing Lewis in a red car from Maranello, and we should also be thankful that the news was this rather than that of him retiring, which could also have been the case. It does leave the question however why the announcement comes now, given it’s a year away, but it’s probably as simple as once the decision was taken, the news would have come out anyway, and no one really doubts that Lewis is professional enough not to be distracted by this in his last Mercedes season.

Yet another reason for announcing the move now if of course also to leave Carlos Sainz enough time to find a new seat. Ferrari have very little reason not to be pleased with Sainz, who together with Charles Leclerc has formed on of the best driving duos the last years in a car that hasn’t always been as good as it should be. The decision to replace Carlos with Lewis cannot have been an easy one, especially since Lewis probably won’t hang on for the next five-six years. So far, it’s unclear if, and if so, for what team Carlos will drive in 2025, but I’d bbet a lot on him doing all he can in 2024 to prove Ferrari wrong!

“What the f* Gene? It wasn’t my fault!”

The other piece of pre-season news was that Günther Steiner, one of the most carismatic profiles of F1, is no longer at the helm of Haas. He’s being replaced by Ayao Komatsu who’s been an engineer with the team since 2016. Let’s just say that I’d be very surprised if a Japanese engineer reaches the same level of flamboyancy as good ol’ Günther… He for one isn’t happy about the decision, although he’s made clear that Gene Haas as owner is in his right to do whatever he likes.

To an outside observer, it seems pretty obvious that Haas’s issues have very little to do with Steiner as a team head, and a lot to do with Haas suffering from too small a budget and resources to keep up, and thus have a car that simply wasn’t fast enough. I’d be very surprised if Komatsu-San can do a better job result-wise than Günther, but I guess time will tell! If the testing that just ended is anything to go by, it doesn’t look good, since both Haas cars ended last…

Coming back to this year’s season, I really can’t think of a year when there was as little movement between drivers and teams as now, given we’re at zero. Daniel Ricciardo is now confirmed as permanent and not just a replacement for Nicky de Vries, next to Yoki Tsunoda in the second AlphaTauri, this year renamed to RB. Those who follow F1 know that Ricciardo’s career has been rather shaky in the last years and not characterized by the best decisions, so let’s hope this works out for him.

Whether first or last on the grid, Sauber will certainly be seen!

Next to that, the only piece of news on the team and driver side is that what used to be the Sauber team and then became Alfa Romeo Racing is now again called Sauber (or rather Kick Sauber, with Kick being the new sponsor). For someone living less than 10 kms from the factory here in Switzerland that’s pretty cool, especially since the team has managed to hang in there since 1993, and has nurtured some of the best drivers out there, including Kimi Räikkönen and Sergio Perez, among others.

Of course all 2024 cars are new, but technical changes are largely absent, knowing that 2025 will be the last year with the current V6 engines. We’re not fully clear on what will replace them, but let me stick my neck out and say that it will probably not be rumbling V8’s…

With such calm before the season starts, will there be a bit more storm when the lights turn to green next Sunday? Let’s indeed hope so, since yet another season with Red Bull and Verstappen dominating proceedings as has been the case in the last years would be slightly…. boring? I’ll leave you to guess who was fasted in the last pre-season training session…

Anyone wants to bet against this ending?

F1 update: Lewis the Legend!

With four races left to go after today’s, it’s time to do a quick pit stop and look at what we’ve seen and can still expect to see in this year’s F1 season.

To start with the most deserving, a week ago Lewis Hamilton became truly legendary in beating Michael Schumacher’s record of F1 race wins. After today, Lewis now totals an incredible 93 wins, 9 of which so far this season. He also equals Schumacher’s record for the most wins with the same team (72), and today’s Hamilton-Bottas double means Mercedes clinched their 7th constructor world title. Lewis is Formula 1’s uncontested number 1, obviously helped by driving the car that is still relatively far ahead of the competition.

It’s good to be the king!

If Lewis is already the de facto world champion, it’s far more contested who will finish second and third – and who won’t. Valtteri Bottas is probably the ideal second driver with Mercedes eyes. He’s loyal to the team and occasionally manages to challenge Lewis, and so far this year has won two races. The question is however rather if what Max Verstappen (Red Bull) and Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) manage to achieve in inferior cars isn’t more impressive. Even though Ferrari is improving and Charles’s results is the only thing that may save Mattia Binotto’s job as team head, they are still far from Mercedes and Charles’s driving is the only thing making Ferrari look slightly better than the mid-field teams. Max on the other hand does a very good job of scoring podium finishes, including one race win this year, and is still in competition with Valtteri for second place in the championship. Red Bull and Max is also the only constellation that occasionally has managed to challenge Mercedes this season.

A good summary of Ferrari’s season so far…

Charles and Max’s relative success also make it very clear that driving skills still count and that it’s not all about the car. The last two races in Portugal and Italy were a good illustration of how far behind Leclerc Sebastian Vettel currently is, in spite of Ferrari confirming both drive identical cars. Seb had officially doubted this but also admitted that Charles is currently in another league. There is probably little hope of things improving before Seb leaves Ferrari for Racing Point / Aston Martin at the end of the season, and you have to wonder whether Racing Point don’t ask themselves whether switching Perez for Vettel was a wise move. I guess time will tell.

There’s equally little hope of Alex Albon retaining his seat in Red Bull. His oddds improved slightly last week when Pierre Gasly confirmed he’s staying with Red Bull’s little brother Alpha Tauri next year. This beats me as Alpha Tauri is Red Bull’s farm team and Pierre’s stellar performance this season with notably one race win stands in stark contrast to Albon’s total lack of results. Today in Italy, Albon then put what is probably the last nail in his coffin himself, when after a mediocre race he completely messed up the restart after the safety car phase with 7 laps to go, managing to lose the car and end up last. Before Portugal, team boss Christian Horner last had given Albon two races to start performing. The fact that he couldn’t and hasn’t been able to all season most probably means we’ll see another second driver at Red Bull next year.

“How the hell can Max be so fast??”

Behind Mercedes and the best half of Red Bull and Ferrari, the mid field is as competitive as ever with Racing Point, McLaren, Renault and Alpha Tauri all very close, and even Alfa Romeo Racing (ex Sauber) managing to pick up points here and there. Although he’s leaving at the end of the season, Daniel Ricciardo certainly doesn’t lack motivation and looks to be finishing his short spell with the Renault team in style, something that may have been really important when Renault decided to stay committed to F1. The team won’t have much time to regret Ricciardo though, as they will instead need to focus on Fernando Alonso returning to the team he won his two world titles with . With an improving car, it will be very interesting to see what an experienced driver like Alonso will be able to achieve.

Will Alonso be able to recreate the magic?

At the back of the field the most interesting is certainly the discussions around Williams, its new owners (the US investment company Dorilton), and whether George Russell will stay on as driver (apparently Nicolas Latifi has enough financial backing to be certain of his seat). Russell has done a fantastic season given what could be expected, notably reaching qualifying P2 on eight occasions (I know, but we’re talking about Williams here!) and also refers to the fact that he has a contract covering 2021. Then again so did Sergio Perez at Racing Point and that didn’t stop the team from firing him and hire Vettel instead. Perez is still looking for a new seat, and it’s not impossible that he kicks Russell out of Williams. Or maybe Perez could be the one replacing Albon at Red Bull?

The UK seems to have a promising successor to Lewis!

As for Haas, last years’ rock’n’roll team notably thanks to the Netflix documentary “Formula 1 – drive to survive” (watch it if you haven’t!) and the charismatic team boss Günther Steiner with his unique version of German English, it’s been a sad season. The team is nowhere to be seen and not even Steiner’s swearing seem to help anymore. Magnussen and Grosjean are both leaving the team next season, Gene Haas is however said to be committed to another season, so Haas will line up two new drivers in 2021. The rumours have it that one of those may be Michael Schumacher’s son Nic… It also means that both Magnussen and Grosjean could be competing for that second seat at Red Bull, both bringing as much experience as Perez.

With four races to go after today there’s thus still some excitement left, however rather off the track given we already know that Lewis will with very high certainty clinch his well-deserved seventh driver’s title soon, with a new record in the number of race wins! Just a small point though – Lewis doesn’t have a contract for next year, which is slightly strange given how late in the season we are. Most probably he’ll re-sign with Mercedes in the coming weeks, because he wouldn’t be retiring now that he’s beaten most records, would he?